NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 04, 2023, 04:06:40 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NJ-Quinnipiac: Menendez +7  (Read 2138 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,799
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« on: October 17, 2018, 03:22:53 PM »
« edited: October 17, 2018, 03:29:11 PM by AMB1996 »

For those who forget, this is a four-point improvement for Hugin since the last Q-poll. Unsurprising since he's basically running a campaign unopposed and just smacked Menendez with the double-whammy of pedophilia* and prostitution. It's a question of attrition at this point How much can Hugin really gain in the short time remaining? Will Menendez supporters really abandon him or stay home?

Still Lean/Likely D until we see at least one poll with the race effectively tied or Hugin winning. One close Stockton poll wasn't enough for me.

I still like Hugin's chances and agree that he's in a better position than Bredesen at least. New Jersey is the one state where you definitely can buy an election against a weak opponent, since it takes a lot of cash to respond effectively to these negative attacks.

-----

*No, I don't need the ancap rant on ephebophilia. From a marketing/campaign perspective, Menendez is being called a pedophile.
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,799
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 04:15:40 PM »

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.

That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.

Undecideds tend to break in favour of corrupted incumbent in what world?

This assumption is based on the disproportionate numbers of undecideds in this race who fall into one of the following categories: women, non-white, from the Philadelphia suburbs. This is a typical assumption that often holds true, though it discounts that all reasons for indecision are not alike.

However, this poll also shows that a disproportionate number of undecideds are from the Shore, non-educated, and independents (especially among women), groups that all go for Hugin. I wouldn't assume the conventional wisdom holds up here.
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,799
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 04:23:33 PM »

Why didn't he lose in the primaries? Why do people continue to vote for such people in primaries... .

Because nobody with any infrastructure or name recognition ran against him. The New Jersey Democratic machine is almost comically strong. Still, it's telling that Menendez's one primary opponent managed to win 40% of the vote, despite being completely anonymous. In effect, many voters were willing to go for her purely as a protest vote (myself included).

What's surprising to me is not how strong the machine is, but that someone like Menendez was ultimately able to exercise control over it. The NJ Democrats place absurd value on loyalty. Competent machines would have rightly forced him off the ballot.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 11 queries.