AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2024, 07:00:33 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)  (Read 2388 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,312
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2018, 12:14:14 PM »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,245


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2018, 12:16:07 PM »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.

They do list the results of many different turnout models.  Among "the types of people who voted in 2014", McSally is +9.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,999


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2018, 12:22:22 PM »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.

They do list the results of many different turnout models.  Among "the types of people who voted in 2014", McSally is +9.

If Trump's approval rating is like 20% in CA/NY/MA/MD-DC-NoVa it could really skew the numbers.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,998


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2018, 12:25:31 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 12:32:29 PM by Oryxslayer »

Delete this post, please wait until the poll is completed. Would you guys have liked it if I posted the NYT TX/TN polls at moments when the dem was ahead? No - you are jumping the gun in the worst way possible.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,031


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2018, 12:31:06 PM »

Delete this post, please with until the poll is completed. Would you guys have liked it if I posted the NYT TX/TN polls at moments when the dem was ahead? No - you are jumping the gun in the worst way possible.

I considered deleting it, but given that it was driving discussion and the OP made an honest mistake, and the poll will close soon enough, I am experimenting with keeping it open and having it transition to be the final poll thread.

I *do* think active discussion of these polls fits best in the megathread on the Congressional board for Upshot polls.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,722


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2018, 01:01:01 PM »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

Unfortunately, they have an issue with R oversampling in a lot of these polls IMO
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2018, 01:06:49 PM »

Posting incomplete polls should not be allowed. The poll clearly states "continues soon".
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2018, 01:32:38 PM »

I considered deleting it, but given that it was driving discussion and the OP made an honest mistake, and the poll will close soon enough, I am experimenting with keeping it open and having it transition to be the final poll thread.

I *do* think active discussion of these polls fits best in the megathread on the Congressional board for Upshot polls.

Yeah, there has been some ongoing discussion of the AZ poll in the megathread. IMO this belongs there and it would make sense to merge this thread into that, it will just confuse people to keep it here.
Logged
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,910


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2018, 09:37:26 PM »

...back to

Sinema 47

McSally 47

LOL
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2018, 11:38:03 PM »

This incomplete poll was apparently too big for the NYT/Siena poll thread?
Logged
DataGuy
Rookie
**
Posts: 217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2018, 11:40:33 PM »

This poll is pretty much turning out just as I expected so far. Sinema started with unrealistically high numbers in key groups but the poll shifted to about even as whites moved to the Republicans and non-whites moved to the Democrats.

Things usually level out somewhat by this point, so the final results probably won't be too different.  If I had to guess, I would say it ends up around McSally +2.
Logged
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,910


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2018, 11:45:24 PM »

This poll is pretty much turning out just as I expected so far. Sinema started with unrealistically high numbers in key groups but the poll shifted to about even as whites moved to the Republicans and non-whites moved to the Democrats.

Things usually level out somewhat by this point, so the final results probably won't be too different.  If I had to guess, I would say it ends up around McSally +2.

It started out pretty strange with Sinema up big with age 65+ voters and McSally up big with hispanic voters.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,903
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2018, 01:38:07 AM »

The numbers moved to McSally + 1, still incomplete. Therefore, I'm locking this thread.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 13 queries.