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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3  (Read 2893 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,250
Austria


« on: October 17, 2018, 10:38:19 am »

I think that's where the race is at the moment.

With leaners it's 49-46.

Blackburn wins Rs by 89-8, Bredesen Dems by 94-4 and Indys by 63-21.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,250
Austria


« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 11:03:46 am »


Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,250
Austria


« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 11:14:44 am »


Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,250
Austria


« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 11:32:13 am »


Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)

There's also the Bredesen internal poll, +1 for Blackburn vs. Bredesen +2 a month ago, showing no major movement.

And CNN and Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

+ I also take into account the Cygnal (R) poll of young voters, which Bredesen leads by double digits, assuming a close race as well overall.

If we average all these polls, Blackburn is only ahead in the 1-4% range, well within the MoE.
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