FL-St. Pete's: Scott +2

[Zaybay]

For anyone wondering, the trend from the last St. Pete poll is R+1 in the governor race, and R+2 in the senate race. Then again, St. Pete is not something I would call a "good pollster" so its best to wait for another pollster to confirm the trend.

[Zaybay]

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

[Zaybay]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

[Zaybay]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

[Zaybay]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

[Zaybay]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

Like I said, 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Scott handled Hurricane Michael. And 61% is not nothing. And now Scott is closer to 50 % than the previous poll released before the hurricane. So of course it has a great chance of having an impact just like Hurricane Sandy had a part of responsibility of boosting Obama a few days before the 2012 election because of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. And I guess that Hurricane Sandy is also a reason why Chris Christie won gubernatorial re-election by so much in 2013.

Wait, now that I think about it, shouldnt his vote share be higher? If he is getting such high checks for the hurricane, shouldnt he be leading by more? This should be his peak for hurricanes, it was the same for Obama, so why isnt he leading by more than just 2?

[Zaybay]

I warned you guys, dont jump on the first poll you see.

[Zaybay]

I warned you guys, dont jump on the first poll you see.

This poll was conducted post-Michael, and long after the Kaiser poll (which was taken pre-Michael). If anything, this one is more relevant and perhaps more reflective of the current state of the race.

As I said, I warned you guys not to jump to conclusions off of one poll.