FL-St. Pete's: Scott +2

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Wow, De Santis ahead by 4 among those who already voted. This is a good sign for him because one of the reasons why Trump managed to flip Florida in 2016 was because he managed to reduce the Democratic advantage in early voting.

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And this same poll says that 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Rick Scott handled Hurricane Michael. This is really a good sign for him.

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I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

And also Scott's record as Governor : strong job creation and the fact that during his 8 years as Governor, education in Florida prospered. Florida passed from #35 in 2011 to #7 in the country in terms of education.

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Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

Like I said, 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Scott handled Hurricane Michael. And 61% is not nothing. And now Scott is closer to 50 % than the previous poll released before the hurricane. So of course it has a great chance of having an impact just like Hurricane Sandy had a part of responsibility of boosting Obama a few days before the 2012 election because of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. And I guess that Hurricane Sandy is also a reason why Chris Christie won gubernatorial re-election by so much in 2013.

[UWS]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

Like I said, 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Scott handled Hurricane Michael. And 61% is not nothing. And now Scott is closer to 50 % than the previous poll released before the hurricane. So of course it has a great chance of having an impact just like Hurricane Sandy had a part of responsibility of boosting Obama a few days before the 2012 election because of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. And I guess that Hurricane Sandy is also a reason why Chris Christie won gubernatorial re-election by so much in 2013.

Wait, now that I think about it, shouldnt his vote share be higher? If he is getting such high checks for the hurricane, shouldnt he be leading by more? This should be his peak for hurricanes, it was the same for Obama, so why isnt he leading by more than just 2?

First we need more patience before we see the actual effects of this.

And Hurricane Sandy also contributed to Obama winning even more votes in New Jersey in 2012 than in 2008.