FL-St. Pete's: Scott +2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 07:48:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  FL-St. Pete's: Scott +2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: FL-St. Pete's: Scott +2  (Read 2778 times)
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 17, 2018, 06:08:38 AM »

49/47. Schorsch cautions that parts of the Panhandle impacted by Michael are under-sampled.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 06:19:04 AM »

Gillum now just over a point ahead of DeSantis despite DeSantis running a zombie campaign? Oh...
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,683
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 06:53:01 AM »

But Atlas told me this race was already over...
Logged
UWS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 08:00:38 AM »

Wow, De Santis ahead by 4 among those who already voted. This is a good sign for him because one of the reasons why Trump managed to flip Florida in 2016 was because he managed to reduce the Democratic advantage in early voting.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 08:01:36 AM »

Wow, De Santis ahead by 4 among those who already voted. This is a good sign for him because one of the reasons why Trump managed to flip Florida in 2016 was because he managed to reduce the Democratic advantage in early voting.

Pretty sure it was the opposite. Clinton did great in EV but Trump did amazing in election day votes.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 08:08:15 AM »

Ah, good ole Atlas, where tossup = safe D when in the real world, a tossup is a tossup.

But Atlas told me this race was already over...
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 08:22:14 AM »

Good news! I think Scott is more than qualified to have this seat after watching his response on Michael.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 08:24:43 AM »

But Atlas told me this race was already over...

something something VA-GOV 2017 redux something Quinnipiac /s

Toss-up remains Toss-up, and this is definitely more winnable for Republicans than WV or MT.
Logged
bilaps
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,789
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 08:25:51 AM »

Wow, De Santis ahead by 4 among those who already voted. This is a good sign for him because one of the reasons why Trump managed to flip Florida in 2016 was because he managed to reduce the Democratic advantage in early voting.

More than 500,000 people already voted in Florida by mail. In person early voting starts in 10 days. Even though Democrats have requested more mail ballots, Republicans so far have returned some 40,000 more ballots so having De Santis up 4 isn't so much surprising. However it's good news for him and for Scott. These numbers so far are ok for Republicans.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 08:29:26 AM »

For anyone wondering, the trend from the last St. Pete poll is R+1 in the governor race, and R+2 in the senate race. Then again, St. Pete is not something I would call a "good pollster" so its best to wait for another pollster to confirm the trend.
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,862
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 08:29:49 AM »

Wow, De Santis ahead by 4 among those who already voted. This is a good sign for him because one of the reasons why Trump managed to flip Florida in 2016 was because he managed to reduce the Democratic advantage in early voting.

More than 500,000 people already voted in Florida by mail. In person early voting starts in 10 days. Even though Democrats have requested more mail ballots, Republicans so far have returned some 40,000 more ballots so having De Santis up 4 isn't so much surprising. However it's good news for him and for Scott. These numbers so far are ok for Republicans.

The GOP is down 25k relative to 2014, whereas Dems are matching 2014. NPAs are up 12k over 2014. See tweet for graph.

Logged
UWS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 08:42:01 AM »

And this same poll says that 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Rick Scott handled Hurricane Michael. This is really a good sign for him.
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 09:08:17 AM »

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 09:09:13 AM »

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.
You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 09:15:43 AM »

So how good a pollster, or not, is st. Pete's?
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 09:45:16 AM »

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 09:52:10 AM »

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.
You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.
Logged
UWS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 09:57:07 AM »

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.
You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

And also Scott's record as Governor : strong job creation and the fact that during his 8 years as Governor, education in Florida prospered. Florida passed from #35 in 2011 to #7 in the country in terms of education.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2018, 10:38:43 AM »

This pollster has generally been friendly to Scott, but yeah, this is still a Toss-Up, ugh.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2018, 11:08:49 AM »

And also Scott's record as Governor : strong job creation and the fact that during his 8 years as Governor, education in Florida prospered. Florida passed from #35 in 2011 to #7 in the country in terms of education.

Attributing job creation to governors is usually a fool's errand. They usually just stand by and take credit for things that are out of their control.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2018, 12:47:22 PM »

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2018, 12:49:36 PM »

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 12:51:28 PM »

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.
Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,237
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 01:51:35 PM »

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.
Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.
Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will push Scott over the edge is ludicrous. Nelson is most likely going to win.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2018, 01:54:03 PM »

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.
Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.
Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 14 queries.