Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.
And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum.
Both races are going to be fascinating to watch. While turnout will be the ultimate factor, I have spoken with quite a few people who are ticket splitting for DeSantis/Nelson. These are moderate voters for Gwen Graham in the primary who think Gillum is a bridge too far ideologically, but believe Scott is a terrible person altogether (red tide is one factor). It’ll be interesting to see if turnout exceeds 2016 - I think it actually might. There are so many cross-currents at play here affecting both races.
1) two centrists running for senate (by Florida standards)
2) two ideologues for governor (by Florida standards)
3) trump’s approval is net +2 (at least that’s the last one I saw)
4) red tide - Everglades Trust endorses DeSantis - does this help DeSantis?
5) Hurricane Michael- does the panhandle turnout drop effectively helping Gillum?
6) Polling- Gillum never led in any primary polling; DeSantis has yet to lead in GE polling- can we trust the polls are correct now?
