OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided (user search)

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  OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided  (Read 1823 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,033

Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: October 28, 2018, 12:35:53 PM »

OR has a fairly consistent history in recent elections of having closer gubernatorial elections than one might expect from its presidential tendencies. 1998 was the last time Democrats won the election by double digits (and that was a landslide) and Democrats haven't cleared 50% since 2006. The last double digit win for a Governor before that was 36 years ago (in 1982; the last GOP win).

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So yeah, Dems have won the last 9 gubernatorial elections, but only 1 by more than 10 points and less than half with a majority of the vote (and none in the past 12 years). Just because a poll or a race looks close doesn't mean it's competitive. Combined with the EV data coming out of OR and the sheer overperformance of Dems even in the southeastern interior, there's not much action here.
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