Can anybody explain to me what's happening in Oregon?
Is it Brown's weakness or is it Buehler's strength that leads to the closeness of that race?
Probably neither. OR is always close for gubernatorial elections. Brown won her special by 7 points. In 2014, the margin was 5 points. In 2010, it was 2 points. In 2006, it was 8 points. 2002, 3 points.
For some reason, one that I do not know off the top of my head, Rs do much better all around gubernatorially in the state. If Brown wins by only 6, then she would be having an average performance for the state.
My guess is that voters in denser areas are more comfortable voting Dem in Presidential elections but not in Gubernatorial elections.
