OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided (user search)
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  OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided  (Read 1567 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,122
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: October 16, 2018, 11:14:21 AM »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,122
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2018, 11:18:39 AM »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon, yes. There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.

I'm not arguing that she's going to lose, but I think there's a double standard for reading polls when a Republican is midly ahead versus a Democrat. So, if an incumbent Republican governor was up by 5 in Indiana or Missouri with 17% undecided, would it be safe R?
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,122
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2018, 11:31:08 AM »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon, yes. There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.

I'm not arguing that she's going to lose, but I think there's a double standard for reading polls when a Republican is midly ahead versus a Democrat. So, if an incumbent Republican governor was up by 5 in Indiana or Missouri with 17% undecided, would it be safe R?

In a Republican wave year, yes.

Fair enough. But I still don't think that would be the case with most people here.
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