NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[Xing]

I think others have pointed out the problems with this "poll" quite well. Instead of my usual shtick about how a polling error here, which has happened before, is more likely than NV not only being immune to the blue wave, but hosting a giant red wave, let me talk about something else...

This absurd electoral truism of "Nevada bucks the trend." It really ONLY applies to the Senate races, and it's a prime example of correlation not equaling causation. In 2010, Harry Reid's opponent was Sharron Angle, who was a complete lunatic, and Republicans should have known that someone with ties to their state as strong as Reid wasn't going to go down easily. Had he faced a stronger opponent, he might well have lost. In 2012, Dean Heller's opponent was scandal-plagued, and basically written off after polls showed her consistently down by about 5%. He still just barely eked out a win against her with just 46% of the vote. Had he faced a slightly better opponent, he almost definitely would have lost. Then there's 2016, where Nevada really did not buck the trend, unless your criteria for "bucking the trend" is based only on who wins. In a slightly Republican-leaning year, a Democratic-leaning state narrowly went Democratic. It still swung Republican, just not by enough for it to flip in a year that was only somewhat Republican-leaning.

And why on earth would Nevada buck the trend this year? Heller's not a popular incumbent like Baker, Scott, or Hogan, Nevada's not a Republican stronghold like North Dakota, and while Rosen might basically be a generic Democrat, it's not like there's anything so offensively off-putting about her as to turn off a large segment of the population.

If 2018 is a good year for Republicans, sure Heller could win. But there's really no reason to believe Heller will survive a blue wave, unless you believe the polls. And if you do, I'll direct you to IceSpear's posts or my signature.

[Zaybay]

Do folks know if they poll in Spanish?

It looks like they did not.

This I how the pollsters have been burned in the past here.

If this is true, that they didnt bother to poll in Spanish in fricken NV, then this poll is automatically garbage and Emerson should just quit as a pollster at this point.

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah, this is going Republican.

Which I’ve said since early September and was laughed at.

Let's hope your confidence based on crappy polls in a state difficult to poll pays off if Heller wins. If he doesn't you are going to look miiiighty stupid.

I’d rather look stupid & wrong and Heller lose than be correct and he win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

oh for f**k's sake

[President Johnson]

For now, I move this to Tilt/lean Republican. Certainly an outlier, but Heller is currently more likely to win than to lose.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not surprised that Heller is able to keep this race relatively close since NV is obviously far more Republican than CO or VA (where Democrats can make up for underwhelming Hispanic turnout by winning over enough college-educated white voters and other reliable voters). So yeah, he could win, but if he does, it won’t be by 7% and Democrats will have far worse things to come to terms with than the outcome of this race. Considering moving this from Lean D to Tossup if an actual high-quality pollster shows Heller ahead, though.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1051897735446638592

[Virginiá]

Unbeatable Titan Heller surges to a commanding polling average of +1.7!

IT'S OVER

OVER!

[Comrade Funk]

So according to this Rosen's best demographic are white people. This might've been believable in 1868.

[Skunk]

Of course Atlas is taking this poll seriously. Even without looking at the crosstabs, it's still a poll that had 61% undecideds for the House race in NV-02. It's pretty safe to say that this is garbage.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I think others have pointed out the problems with this "poll" quite well. Instead of my usual shtick about how a polling error here, which has happened before, is more likely than NV not only being immune to the blue wave, but hosting a giant red wave, let me talk about something else...

This absurd electoral truism of "Nevada bucks the trend." It really ONLY applies to the Senate races, and it's a prime example of correlation not equaling causation. In 2010, Harry Reid's opponent was Sharron Angle, who was a complete lunatic, and Republicans should have known that someone with ties to their state as strong as Reid wasn't going to go down easily. Had he faced a stronger opponent, he might well have lost. In 2012, Dean Heller's opponent was scandal-plagued, and basically written off after polls showed her consistently down by about 5%. He still just barely eked out a win against her with just 46% of the vote. Had he faced a slightly better opponent, he almost definitely would have lost. Then there's 2016, where Nevada really did not buck the trend, unless your criteria for "bucking the trend" is based only on who wins. In a slightly Republican-leaning year, a Democratic-leaning state narrowly went Democratic. It still swung Republican, just not by enough for it to flip in a year that was only somewhat Republican-leaning.

And why on earth would Nevada buck the trend this year? Heller's not a popular incumbent like Baker, Scott, or Hogan, Nevada's not a Republican stronghold like North Dakota, and while Rosen might basically be a generic Democrat, it's not like there's anything so offensively off-putting about her as to turn off a large segment of the population.

If 2018 is a good year for Republicans, sure Heller could win. But there's really no reason to believe Heller will survive a blue wave, unless you believe the polls. And if you do, I'll direct you to IceSpear's posts or my signature.

This.

Also:

[Person Man]

Of course Atlas is taking this poll seriously. Even without looking at the crosstabs, it's still a poll that had 61% undecideds for the House race in NV-02. It's pretty safe to say that this is garbage.

I have a feeling very few of the union or SI workers in Vegas have landlines.

[Skunk]

Of course Atlas is taking this poll seriously. Even without looking at the crosstabs, it's still a poll that had 61% undecideds for the House race in NV-02. It's pretty safe to say that this is garbage.

I have a feeling very few of the union or SI workers in Vegas have landlines.

Yeah, which is why Emerson should stop doing landline-only polls.

[DavidB.]

Probably way too R-friendly, but I'm moving this from lean D to tossup.

[MT Treasurer]

At this point, I'd rather be Phil Bredesen than Jacky Rosen.

lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Of course Atlas is taking this poll seriously. Even without looking at the crosstabs, it's still a poll that had 61% undecideds for the House race in NV-02. It's pretty safe to say that this is garbage.

I have a feeling very few of the union or SI workers in Vegas have landlines.

these people are actually likely to be ok with hell we, due to his opposition of the Cadillac tax

[DataGuy]

I think others have pointed out the problems with this "poll" quite well. Instead of my usual shtick about how a polling error here, which has happened before, is more likely than NV not only being immune to the blue wave, but hosting a giant red wave, let me talk about something else...

This absurd electoral truism of "Nevada bucks the trend." It really ONLY applies to the Senate races, and it's a prime example of correlation not equaling causation. In 2010, Harry Reid's opponent was Sharron Angle, who was a complete lunatic, and Republicans should have known that someone with ties to their state as strong as Reid wasn't going to go down easily. Had he faced a stronger opponent, he might well have lost. In 2012, Dean Heller's opponent was scandal-plagued, and basically written off after polls showed her consistently down by about 5%. He still just barely eked out a win against her with just 46% of the vote. Had he faced a slightly better opponent, he almost definitely would have lost. Then there's 2016, where Nevada really did not buck the trend, unless your criteria for "bucking the trend" is based only on who wins. In a slightly Republican-leaning year, a Democratic-leaning state narrowly went Democratic. It still swung Republican, just not by enough for it to flip in a year that was only somewhat Republican-leaning.

And why on earth would Nevada buck the trend this year? Heller's not a popular incumbent like Baker, Scott, or Hogan, Nevada's not a Republican stronghold like North Dakota, and while Rosen might basically be a generic Democrat, it's not like there's anything so offensively off-putting about her as to turn off a large segment of the population.

If 2018 is a good year for Republicans, sure Heller could win. But there's really no reason to believe Heller will survive a blue wave, unless you believe the polls. And if you do, I'll direct you to IceSpear's posts or my signature.

I understand why people are skeptical about NV polls. And the fundamentals do favor Rosen. Based on my calculation of the fundmentals, Rosen starts with an advantage of about 4.5. But whatever you think of their reliability in predicting the specific margin, it is very clear the polls have shifted recently from a small/moderate Rosen lead to a small/moderate Heller lead. Even assuming that Heller's being overestimated by the average 2-3 points, that makes the race a tie. I would rank this a pure tossup right now.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I’m not surprised that Heller is able to keep this race relatively close since NV is obviously far more Republican than CO or VA (where Democrats can make up for underwhelming Hispanic turnout by winning over enough college-educated white voters and other reliable voters). So yeah, he could win, but if he does, it won’t be by 7% and Democrats will have far worse things to come to terms with than the outcome of this race. Considering moving this from Lean D to Tossup if an actual high-quality pollster shows Heller ahead, though.

Siena and Marist already show him with a lead.

[ON Progressive]

This poll should be thrown into the garbage. LOL @ Heller winning whites by a 47.5-43.2 margin but winning by 7.

Trump won white voters in NV by 19 points in 2016 and lost the state. If Heller can't even get a double digit lead with white voters, he will get blown out badly.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, this poll has Heller winning blacks? Oh

[DataGuy]

I thought it might be interesting to see how some of these pollsters being discussed now performed in 2016. Emerson's last poll of NV showed both Clinton and Cortez-Masto leading by 1, and they both won by 2.4. That's not a huge error. In fact, it's perfectly normal if not a little better than average.

And in the presidential race, the most accurate NV poll was, wait for it ... Gravis. Yes, Gravis. Their last poll showed Clinton up two, and she won by two. Their Senate poll actually overestimated Cortez-Masto by 4 points or so. This year, they have most recently shown Rosen +2.

I know it's common practice to look at crosstabs to discredit polls that don't "fit," but the crosstabs always have large margins of error anyway and are not supposed to be viewed as very predictive. As Nate Cohn discussed recently in a Twitter thread, some of us might know too much for our own good. https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1050579929203642368

[Skye]

I thought it might be interesting to see how some of these pollsters being discussed now performed in 2016. Emerson's last poll of NV showed both Clinton and Cortez-Masto leading by 1, and they both won by 2.4. That's not a huge error. In fact, it's perfectly normal if not a little better than average.

And in the presidential race, the most accurate NV poll was, wait for it ... Gravis. Yes, Gravis. Their last poll showed Clinton up two, and she won by two. Their Senate poll actually overestimated Cortez-Masto by 4 points or so. This year, they have most recently shown Rosen +2.

I know it's common practice to look at crosstabs to discredit polls that don't "fit," but the crosstabs always have large margins of error anyway and are not supposed to be viewed as very predictive. As Nate Cohn discussed recently in a Twitter thread, some of us might know too much for our own good. https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1050579929203642368

Taking a jab right at Atlas I see.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Emerson is a crappy pollster, but Lean D -> Tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV is starting to look R friendly, and can vote for Trump in 2020

[Lachi]

Yeah, this poll is complete junk, there was no Spanish polling.