A Different Republican Icon
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:57:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  A Different Republican Icon
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23
Poll
Question: Who do you think will win the 1980 Election
#1
Fritz Hollings
 
#2
Jack Kemp
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 9

Author Topic: A Different Republican Icon  (Read 67210 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #500 on: May 24, 2020, 03:25:18 AM »
« edited: May 24, 2020, 03:42:31 AM by Old School Republican »

Feel free to make predictions with maps on here and Im wondering what Atlas's prediction are for the 1980 election.

 
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #501 on: May 24, 2020, 04:20:50 AM »

Prediction:



✓ Senator Jack Kemp(R-NY)/Former Defense Secretary John Connally(R-TX): 370 EV. (51.06%)
President Fritz Hollings(D-SC)/Vice President Edmund Muskie(D-ME) 168 EV. (46.78%)
Logged
erſatz-york
SlippingJimmy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 475


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #502 on: May 24, 2020, 02:33:42 PM »


Kemp/Connally: 387 EV
Hollings/Muskie: 151 EV

I am tempted to call NY for Kemp, but that seems like a bridge too far.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #503 on: May 25, 2020, 07:43:44 PM »

NBC News: Election Night 1980(Part 1)



7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: Good evening and welcome to NBC News's coverage of the 1976 Election. Tonight we will see if President Hollings will be in the White House for 4 more years or if we will be sending our very first professional athlete to the White House. As you can see we have already projected Indiana for Senator Kemp but now we are also able to project the states of Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and Vermont for Senator Kemp while we can project the home state of President Hollings, South Carolina for him . We are unable to make projections at this time in Ketnucky and Georgia



Kemp 49
Hollings 8

Brokaw: Now lets look at some of the exit polls



Race:

White Voters: 88% ; Kemp 58%, Hollings 41%
Black Voters: 10% ; Hollings 86%, Kemp 13%
Hispanic Votes: 2% : Hollings 63% , Kemp 36%


Gender:

Men Votes: 50% ; Kemp 56% Hollings 43%
Women Votes: 50% ; Kemp 50% Hollings 50%

Where People Live:

Urban Area: 29%: Hollings 57% Kemp 42%
Suburban Areas: 45%: Kemp 57% Hollings 42%
Rural Areas: 26%: Kemp 57% Hollings 42%

Age:

18-21: 7%: Kemp 50% Hollings 49%
22-44: 52%: Kemp 54% Hollings 45%
44-65: 28%: Kemp 53% Hollings 46%
65+: 13%: Kemp 50% Hollings 50%

Brokaw: From these exit polls it seems like Senator Kemp is the clear favorite but we just want to remind you these are just polls

Chancellor: No but the fact Florida was called instantly for Senator Kemp does bode good news for him. Now people may be asking where David Brinkley , ill let you know that he will join us from time to time but since he is still recovering from his operation he wont be able to be here constantly for the full night coverage. Ok lets go over to Jessia Savitch to see how the senate races are going like

Savtich: Yup as you may remember from 1976 here is our battleground tracker

Senate:

Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina

Savitch: Currently we are unable to make a projection for any of these races but in the House we are able to tell you that in the House we are unable to make a projection on who will control the house but we can tell you at this time we beleive this will be the ranges and no surprise it has moved in the favor of the Republicans

Republicans: 209-229
Democrats: 206-226


Chancellor: At this point the most likely outcome seems to be a Republican trifecta though there is a long way to go

Brokaw: I would agree


7:30:


Chancellor: Its 7:30 in the east and we can project that President Hollings will win the states of North Carolina and its 13 electoral votes along with West Virginia and its 6 electoral votes. We are unable to make a projection in Ohio



Kemp: 49
Hollings 27

Brokaw: Not a surprise but those two states that the President had to have go to him at poll closing times if he has any hopes of being reelected. Jessica Im told you have something

Savitch: Yes and that is In the Indiana Senate Race - We are now able to project that the Republican Richard Lugar will defeat Senator Brangin to become the next senator of that state

Senate:

Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina


Chancellor: Well that gives Republicans 1 gain so far , and just to remind everyone they need 4 seats to gain control of the Senate outright, 3 if they win the White House as then they will control the tiebreaker. Now with us is David Brinkley who will give us his thoughts so far

Brinkley: Well it clearly looks like Senator Kemp is definitely the favorite to win this race , and looking at the fact the Indiana senate race was called this early the Republicans also favored to take the senate and as of house I would say its a pure tossup at this point. Out of the exit polls the most interesting one is the age exit poll as the groups most unfavorable to the President are the age groups that where the state of the economy most directly impacts them while the young and old are less unfavorable due to the fact that there isnt as much of a direct impact.

What this shows is the Economy is the main reason why people are voting today and in bad economic times that goes against the incumbent.

Chancellor: Thanks David and now we will send it back to your local news coverage where you can see your local races and we will be back in just under 20 minutes when there will be a huge amount of poll closings and we will really be able to see the state of the race.

Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #504 on: May 25, 2020, 07:58:28 PM »

Kemp is gonna win
Logged
Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,413
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #505 on: May 25, 2020, 08:05:50 PM »

I believe in Fritz!
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #506 on: May 26, 2020, 02:52:28 AM »

NBC News: Election Night 1980(Part 2)



8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: Its 8 PM in the east which means the biggest batch of poll closings will take place and NBC News can now project Senator Kemp has won the states of Kansas, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and the big one Texas . We can alslo project President Hollings will win the District of Columbia , Maryland, Massachusetts . We are unable to make projections in Alabama, Connecticut, Deleware, Illinois , Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri , Pennsylvania and Tennessee



Kemp 107
Hollings 54

Chancellor: The big one is Texas obviously but New Jersey being called at poll closing time is major major news

Brokaw: Indeed it is as that likely means that New York will be close tonight which is not good news for the President in other major industrial  states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Illionis . Pennsylvania in recent years has voted a couple points to the left of New York and we do expect that to continue tonight and results we have in so far show good news in Pennsylvania. Alright now lets go to Jessia for some senate calls

Savitch: Yes and we can call another key senate race and that is in the state of Florida we can now project that Republican Paula Hawkins will the Democratic candidatge  Bull Gunter to become the next seantor from that state. That makes the Republican gains 2 and remember they need 3 or 4 seats to take the seante

Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina



Savitch: In the House now we can now are able to move our range even more favorably to the Republicans and can now project they will have won at least 212 seats when this night is all said and done and could get as high as 229.


Chancellor: Ok we have been able to get the data from some key states and right now its not looking good for President Hollings. In Ohio remember we said the President needed to win by over 20 points in Mahoning, Cayahoga and around 15 points in Trumbull well right now he is winning Mahoning by around 14-15 points , Cayahoga by around 12 , and Trumbull by around 8 which is very very bad news for the President in Ohio. On the other hand Senator Kemp is winning by over 20 points in Hamilton and is doing very well in Central Ohio . So at this point Ohio looks very favorable to Senator Kemp and if Senator Kemp wins Ohio, I really dont see a pathway forward for President Hollings to be reelected. David do you agree


Brinkley: Absoutely I do and as of now I would be shocked, I mean shocked if the President manages to pull of a victory in Ohio tonight given those margins . New Jersey being called instantly is also pretty much very bad news for President Hollings as while New Jersey is more republican than these key states being called instantly means he is doing bad in the types of counties he will need in those key states to win .

Brokaw: Another state we have gotten information from is Georgia and again it looks like Georgia will be a nailbiter too and whats fueling it is absolutely astounding margins Senator Kemp is getting in Suburban Atlanta as is winning by more than 2-1 in Cobb County almost 2-1 in Gwinnett , and in the belweather county of DeKalb its going back and forth so this state likely wont be called all night.


Brinkley: Again that is bad news for President Hollings because Georgia was leaning towards him all campaign long and if he is struggling to win it then again its extremely hard to envision a path to victory for him


8:30

Brokaw: NBC News has some more projections to make and that is we can project the states of Arkansas and Mississippi to be won by President Hollings while the state of Connecticut will be won by Senator Kemp



Kemp 115
Hollings 67


Chancellor: As of now Illionis looks very bad for the President as well because our exit polls along with results in key precients which are explorated out show that at best President Hollings will come out of Chicago Metro with a 75,000 vote lead which is no where near enough and would easily be dwarfed by Republican margins downstate. So really if nothing changes by the top of next hour we should be able to call this state for Senator Kemp at the top of next hour which would mean that President Hollings will have to win Ohio which is looking more and more difficult

Brokaw: Also the fact that Mississippi wasnt called at poll closing times is bad omen for Alabama as well

Chancellor: Yes I agree and really the electoral margin is very deceptive because if you add in all the western states that are safely in Senator Kemp's column it will give him more than 225 EV and with Illionis he will have more than 250 and if the trend is correct in Ohio that will put him over the top . So at this point President Hollings needs the political miracle equivalent of the US beating the Soviets in Hockey and maybe even bigger.

Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #507 on: May 26, 2020, 03:47:08 AM »

Go Fritz! We want Fritz! We want Fritz! We want Fritz!
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #508 on: May 26, 2020, 02:26:28 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2020, 02:30:26 PM by Old School Republican »

NBC News: Election Night 1980(Part 3)



9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: It is 9 PM in the east and we can project that Senator Kemp will carry the states of Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico , North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming but also carry the state of Illionis and its very important 26 electoral votes. We can also project President Hollings will carry the state of Minnesota and Rhode Island . We are unable to make a projection in Lousiana, New York and Wisconsin



Kemp 173
Hollings 81

Brokaw: While it is no surprise at this point, Senator Kemp winning Illionis is big and that means that President Hollings must sweep the rest of the major tossup state to have a chance of being reelected
reelected.

Chancellor: Yup if you give Senator Kemp all the western states and Iowa then Senator Kemp as 259 electoral votes and then if you add Deleware which we believe still leans heavily in  Senator Kemp's way then he will have 262 electoral votes which means President Hollings must sweep the rest of the states to be reelected with the exception of one of Maine and Hawaii but if he isnt winning both Maine and Hawaii he isnt getting reelected so at this point he needs a sweep to be reelected. Ok now lets go to Jessia for some Senate results

Savitch: Yes and that is NBC can project that in South Dakota- the Republican James Abdnor will defeat liberal firebrand Senator George McGovern by a comfortable margin and will be the next senator from that state. Some good news for the Democrats though is that in South Carolina the Democrat Grandy Patterson will unseat Senator William Westmoreland to become the next senator from that state . This means the Republicans net gain is still stuck at 2 .

Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina


Savitch: In our key Governor's race we can project in South Dakota , Republican Allen Olson will be the next governor of the state unseating Governor Arthur link.


Brokaw: Lets look at some of the states still up starting with Pennsylvania where right now President Hollings is leading due to strong performances in Philadelphia and Western Pennsylvania including the Bellweather county of Erie where he is up by 5 points at this point so at this point I think he is favored to win the state. Ohio and Georgia havent changed much over the past half and hour, so then when you get to Michigan a huge problem is that President Hollings hasnt gotten over 60% there and in Macomb so far Senator Kemp so far has a healthy 7 point lead so again its not looking good.

Chancellor: Not its not Tom and once you get down say to Tenneesse its not much better either. Anyway David what is your opinion on how the night is going far so night

Brinkley: Its undoubtedly a great night for the Republicans so far and if it continues come January we might see Republicans control across the board which will mean that Senator Kemp's tax proposal of repealing the 1973 bill plus an additonal business tax cut will pass , government programs will face more scrutiny and at the very least will be block granted if not axed , protectionist trade barriers will be dropped and you will get an increase in military spending plus more .

One key point I want to tell is that while yes President Hollings did manage to win last time it was only barely and many say due to John Anderson being in the race, so Democrats really have to ask themselves can you continuously manage to lose every state West of Missouri with the exception of Hawaii cycle after cycle like they have since 1968 and still have a reasonable pathaway to victory. Democrats could before due to how big cities in the Industrial states had more influence and the South was totally theirs but they cant anymore  


9:45:

Brokaw: NBC News can project that President Hollings will infact carry the state of Pennsylvania and its 27 electoral votes while Senator Kemp will will carry the state of Deleware and its 3 electoral votes



Kemp 176
Hollings 108

Chancellor: While that is good news for President Hollings the fact that it took so long to be called really tells why he is in such trouble in Ohio and Michigan cause he needed this state to be called within the first 30 minutes of poll closing times to have a really good shot and winning either state.

Brokaw: Yup now with us is Democratic Senate Majoirty Leader Robert Byrd. So Senator Byrd what are your opinions on the results

Byrd: It is not looking good Tom but the election is not over until its over so until either candidate his the 270 mark its not over so I still have hopes President Hollings can be reelected. As for senate same thing its not over until the magic number of 51 is reached so I still have hopes we can win

Brokaw: If President Hollings win and the Republicans take the House and Senate what would be your next step

Byrd: Well we still have 8 weeks left in this session so we will still be concentrated on that and we look forward to passing a bill that ties the minimum wage to inflation which we think will pass and something the Republicans even if they win the White House and both houses of congress. As for next session we will reach out and work with them as much as possible but we wont concede on everything and will hope they also reach out to us as well.

Brokaw: Thanks Senator Byrd for coming on

Byrd : Anytime Tom
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #509 on: May 26, 2020, 03:14:43 PM »

Great job! Looks like Kemp will win, since he's favored in the West and probably takes Ohio as well.

I would have supported Hollings, though.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #510 on: May 26, 2020, 08:15:00 PM »

NBC News: Election Night 1980(Part 4)



10:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: Its 10 PM on the east and we can project the states of Montana, Idaho, Utah and Nevada will be won by Senator Kemp. Another major major projection we can make at this point is the battleground state of Ohio and its 25 extremely important electoral votes will be won by Senator Kemp . We are unable to make a projection in Iowa at this moment



Kemp 216
Hollings 108

Brokaw: That may have very well closed out the final path President Hollings had to being reelected

Chancellor: Absolutely cause if you give the states of California, Oregon , Washington to Senator Kemp which were states that were considered solidly to be in Senator Kemp's column than those alone will give Senator Kemp 276 Electoral votes so at this point I dont see anyway that would result in President Hollings being in the White House for 4 more years.

Brokaw: Yup Ohio was very important in President Hollings path but the margins just weren't there in North East Ohio for President Hollings to pull of a win like he did 4 years ago. Now lets go over to Jessica Savitch for a result in the senate races

Savitch: Yes Tom and that is NBC News can now project in Vermont that the Republican Stewart Ledbetter will defeat Senator Patrick Lehy by an extremely razor thin margin to become the next Senator from the state and in Colorado Democratic Senator Gary Hart will be reelected by around a 5 point margin.

Senate:
Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina


Savitch: So Republicans get back a senate seat they had never lost before 1974 .  Also that makes their pathway to a majority much easier because if you look at tw key senate races which are held by Republicans Pennslyvania and New York the Republicans are doing well and better than Senator Kemp. In Pennsylvania the Republican Arlen Specter is doing better in Western Pennsylvania and Philadelphia county than Senator Kemp which gives him the edge at this moment and in New York the split in the liberal vote is giving the Republicans the lead there  so if Republicans hold both seats and California like they are expected too they will only need to gain 1 seat in order to take the senate

Chancellor: David what do you think of the senate races so far

Brinkley: Well at this point I would say the Republicans are almost guaranteed to take the senate because if you remember in Alaska the Republican candidate was up in the polls by double digit so just that seat would give them the majority and even if they lose Pennsylvania , polls in Iowa are showing that that race wasnt much of a tossup either so at this point its very hard to see the Republicans not take the senate.

Brokaw: I would agree with that and the House is looking close to being theirs too with Republicans projected to win at least 215 seats before the night is over as well. David I have one question you have talked a lot this year about how important this election is now that it is over what will be President Hollings overall legacy

Brinkley: Well depends on what you are talking about, from a macroeconomic sense his legacy will probably be washed out within the first 100 days as Senator Kemp will pretty much overturn much of his regulatory policies, congress will repeal the tax bill and reverse his policy on direct federal spending. In reality though I feel though this makes it clear that Friedmanian economics and now Keyensian economic is the new economic consensus and has been really since Goldwater's first term and the past 4 years were just an final attempt to rebuild the New Deal Keynesian Consensus which didnt work.

On other things though I think President Hollings will be remembered much better a couple decades from now as he did manage to pass Healthcare reform which was big and even after tonight Senator Kemp wont have the votes in the senate to even water it down let alone repeal it, made many education reforms that are likely to stay, and if this minimum wage bill passes within the next two months be remembered as well. Abroad he will be remembered for peace between Israel and Egypt, the Panama Canal Treaty, and getting our personal out of Iran to avoid a hostage situation. So in areas not relating to fiscal or regulatory policy much of  his legacy will last.

Chancellor: I agree with you David on that

10:25:

Brokaw: We are able to take two states out of the two close to call column and they are Lousiana which we are able to project has been won by Senator Jack Kemp and Kentucky which has been won by President Hollings



Kemp 226
Hollings 117

Brokaw: Well now just California will put Senator Kemp over the edge and looking at Michigan where the Senator is up by a pretty healthy margin with around 8 point margin in Macomb , a 17 point margin in Oakland so that state looks pretty good for him. In Missouri again Senator Kemp is up by a healthy 4 points with strong margins in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs.

Chancellor: I agree . Now lets bring in our next guest , Former President Goldwater. So President Goldwater what is your thoughts about these results so far

Goldwater: I am very happy about these results and the results in the Senate and House means that Senator Kemp should be able to pass his agenda and I am very happy that my friend has won as well.

Chancellor: Tax Cuts and more Block grant legislation is expected to pass so do you expect more

Goldwater: I think this time regulatory reform can pass because this type unlike in 1973 there are more conservatives in our party so I think if we get both houses that bill will pass this time. I also think more free trade legislation will pass as well and I think even spending cuts will pass

Chancellor: last question your son was a star at the convention this summer, does that mean he is the future Republican candidate

Goldwater: At this point I am just worried about helping Senator Kemp be as successful as possible and my son is worried about delivering conservative reform at the state level in California

Chancellor: Thanks for coming on President Goldwater

Goldwater: Anytime


10:45

Brokaw: NBC News can now project that Senator Kemp will carry the states of Michigan and Iowa adding another 29 electoral votes to his total and bringing Senator Kemp up to 255 Electoral votes



Kemp 255
Hollings 117


Chancellor: The reason we were able to call Michigan is the fact that President Hollings was not getting enough votes in Wayne to offset the margins Senator Kemp was getting in the suburbs of Detriot and in the more rural areas of Michigan as well.  Now lets go to Jessia Savitch for one more Senate Projection

Savitch: Yes and that is in Iowa we can project the Republican Chuck Grassley will unseat the liberal Democratic Senator John Culver to become the next Senator from the state

Senate:

Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina


Savitch: That means at this point Democrats will need to win both New York and Pennsylvania to keep control of the senate, otherwise the senate will be controlled but the Republicans next January
Logged
Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,413
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #511 on: May 27, 2020, 01:56:15 AM »

It's basically impossible for Fritzy to win reelection
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #512 on: May 27, 2020, 02:04:18 AM »

NBC News: Election Night 1980(Part 5)



11:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Breaking News: Jack Kemp Elected President



Chancellor: The time has come, you have seen the map and NBC News is ready to make its projection for the Presidency: Jack Kemp is our projected winner of the Presidential race, the football star and current New York Senator will win the 1980 Presidential election and will be the 39th President of the United States.

The Reason we can say that is the polls have just closed in the west and we can project that Senator and now President-Elect Kemp will carry the states of Washington, Oregon and the big one California while President Hollings will carry the state of Hawaii. The wins there not only move him past the 270 number but well past the 300 one as well



Kemp 315
Hollings 121

Brokaw: While this isnt a surprise at this point , and we were all expecting this for some time now but President-Elect Kemp will probably have one of the most improbable rises in politics we have ever seen given that 10 years ago he was still a pro football player and within 10 years he has gone form being a pro football player to a senator to being the President-Elect of the United States.

Chancellor: Much of his political career he credits to President Goldwater and it was during his presidency when he quickly rose the conservative ranks and then really became viewed as the future of the party after his RNC speech 4 years ago and after President Hollings was defeated, he was viewed as the presumtive frontrunner and that status never left. Anyway we still have some important senate calls to get to so lets go to Jessica

Savitch: Yes , and that is that NBC News can project in California- Senator George Deukmejian will be reelected

Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina


Savitch: Republicans just need to win two of out of the remaining 6 to get a majority and right now that looks like a very good chance of happening


Chancellor: David what do you think of this moment and what do you think this means for the future of the Democratic party

Brinkley: Well I think its an amazing moment of course like it is whenever we elect a President and I wish President-Elect Kemp in his success now as he is all our presidents. Now what does this mean for the Democratic party well I would say one it makes it clear that the New Deal Coalition era is over and really has been over since 1968 but more is that the Democrats will have to really look deep and rebuild because the entire map goes against them now. The West basically seems completely solidly Republican election after election, the South not only isnt solid anymore but its a battleground and in most of the Midwestern and even North-East states the Urban Areas dont have the sway as they used to as the suburbs now have more and more influence. One stat I saw is in Illinois if you plugged in the same Urban Suburban and Rural % both Kennedy and Nixon got , today that results in a Republican win without any controversy so the fact is Democrats have a lot of rebuilding to do.

Chancellor: How long will that process be

Brinkley: Well we dont know as much of that will depend on how the Kemp adminstration does but if we were to assume a neutral job then it take a few presidential election cycles in the wilderness as its not easy to try to create a new coalition as the process of doing that will alienate some of your core support and there will be setbacks but eventually they will come back with a new coalition but it wont be a quick and easy process.


Brokaw: I agree and I think the rebuilding starts in midterm elections as that is when the Democrats can create a sorta of farm team that can help created that coalition and eventually bring the party to victory.



11:15:

Brokaw: NBC News is now able to project that the state of Missouri will be won by President-Elect Kemp.




Kemp 327
Hollings 121


Chancellor: We are getting word that President Hollings has conceded to Senator Kemp and will give his concession speech in 15 minutes so we will head there soon and right after that we will head to Buffalo where President-Elect Kemp will give his victory speech. Lets go to Jessica as we are hearing we have breaking news

Breaking News: Republicans Retake Control of House of Representatives



Savitch: We do and that is that we can now project the Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 6 years and that means Representative Gerald Ford will once again be the Speaker of the House. We also project the Republicans will have anywhere from 223-226 seats at the end of tonight marking a gain of anywhere from 29-32 seats in the House of Representatives


Chancellor: That is big though the House was expected to be around a 50/50 proposition for the Republicans by the last couple days and it seems like they will get a razor thing margin in the House though again like in 1972 it seems only large enough to last 2 years.

Brokaw: Yup but in those two years i means indeed they can again try things like regulatory reform and with the Republican senate caucus being more conservative than in 1973 it probably would pass

Savitch: Sorry to interrupt but we can make a projection in the New York Senate race and that is the Conservative Republican candidate  Al D'Amato will win due to a split in the liberal vote and be the next Senator from New York meaning Republicans only need to win 1 more seat to take the senate.

 
Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina

 

Chancellor: Since we are talking about New York we are also able to make a projection and that is we can project that President Hollings will win the state of New York  by around 2- 2 and a half points. We can also project that President-Elect Kemp will win the state of Tennessee




Kemp 337
Hollings 162

Chancellor: All right President Hollings has arrived to give his concession speech so we will go to that
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #513 on: May 27, 2020, 02:11:02 AM »

It's basically impossible for Fritzy to win reelection

Well it was tough to win given the economic situation and given the fact the structural state of the Republican Party was much stronger in OTL due to no Watergate and Goldwater helping build up state parties better than Nixon did.

Anyway, Hollings still will end up doing way better than Carter did and his presidency still will be more successful than Carter's as well.


Also Im sure you will really like who the President is in  ITTL 2020 which I will cover in the epilogue section of this TL which I will post after Inaugration Day 1981 which will be the end of the TL.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #514 on: May 27, 2020, 06:29:21 PM »

President Hollings's concession speech:



Source: https://www.c-span.org/video/?124177-1/hollings-campaign-speech


Hollings: A Few moments ago I spoke with Senator Jack Kemp and congratulated him on his impressive electoral victory, and also invited him to come to the White House later this week so we can talk about making sure their is a smooth and successful transition between our administration(Light Applause). Now while this was not the election result any of us wanted, President-Elect Kemp will soon be all of our President and we should all root for his success because his sucess will be all of our success(Applause).

I also want to thank Vice President Muskie for being the best Vice President anyone could have asked for(Applause), and most importantly of all thank all of you too(Applause). Without your support not only would I never have had the opportunity to be your  President, but never be Senator or Governor(Applause) and I want to let you know that while we may have lost the election , the fight for the ideas we have fought for over the past 4 years does not end tonight(Applause). The fight for the ideas we have foguth for are not determined by the results of one election but determined by the wishes of you the people and at the end of the day the ideas we have fought for are more important than the result of any election(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


President-Elect Kemp's victory speech:



Source: https://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip_37-203xsnjw

Kemp: A Short While Ago I had the opportunity to speak to President Hollings who congratulated us on our electoral win and I congratulated him on a well run campaign and an extraordinary career(Applause). I also told him I look forward to working with him over the next couple months to help bring our nation together as if we wanna overcome our nation's challenges we can best do it together (Applause) .

I want to thank all my staff , my volunteers and you the people for the trust you put in me and I promise to all of you that I will do my utmost to keep that trust(Applause) as I know you didn't campaign hard just so you could win an election but because of the hopes we can make the changes we need to make our nation a better place(Applause). Doing so might not be easy but I am confident that we can help make our nation live up to its ideals and be better than it ever has been before not because of me or any politician but because of you the people(Applause).

I want to also thank my running mate and good friend, Vice President Elect John Connally he did in this campaign season and look forward to working with him over the next 4 years to help our nation. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #515 on: May 27, 2020, 07:34:22 PM »

NBC News: Election Night 1980(Part 6)



12:14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Chancellor: All right before we get to our thoughts on President Hollings, and Presidnet-Elect Kemp's speeches we have some projection to make as the polls have closed in Alaska and we can project President Kemp will carry the state of Alaska and also will carry the state of Alabama



Kemp 349
Hollings 162

Chancellor: We also have a major projection to make in the senate race so lets go to Jessica

Breaking News: Republican to Retake Control of the Senate




Savitch: Yes we do and that is we can now project that the Republican will retake control of the United States Senate for the first time in 6 years and the reason we can project that is we can project that in Alaska the Republican Frank Murkoski will unseat Democratic Senator Mike Gravel in a landslide, and in Washington, the Republican Slade Gorton will defeat longtime Democratic Senator Warren Magnuson to become the next senator of that state

Senate:
Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina



Brokaw: That is big news indeed as that means the Republcians will get the trifecta they so desperately conveted

Savitch: Yes and right now the Republican candidate has just taken the lead in Wisconsin and they lead in Pennsylvania and Idaho so they likely will have their biggest senate majority when this is all over since 1946 and maybe even 1928 as remember in 1952, 1970 and 1972 they only had majorities through the Vice Presidential tiebreaker while this time along with 1946 they were outright majorities.

Brinkley: Yes this result is major news and it could be large enough to last them until at least 1984 and if President-Elect Kemp gets reelected until 1986.

Chancellor: What was your thoughts about President Hollings's and President-Elect Kemp's speeches

Brinkley: Well I think that they were fine speeches with President Hollings's speech being gracious and President-Elect Kemp's being humble and thankful to the people but I wouldnt say memorable which is fine

Brokaw: I would agree with that and I think that President-Elect Kemp is saving more of his rhetorical parts for the inauguration and tonight just wanted  to be humble for his win which is a good thing in my opinion


12:55:

Brokaw: NBC News can now project Project that President-Elect Kemp will win the state of Wisconsin and its 11 Electoral votes while President Hollings will win his Vice President Muskie's home state of Maine and its 4 electoral votes



Kemp 360
Hollings 166

Brokaw: The reason President-Elect Kemp won Virginia was due to his strong performances in the Milwaukie suburbs, and was able to win SW WI and was able to ride it to victory. Now lets go over to Jessica for another Senate call


Savitch: Yes and that is the Republican Steve Symms will defeat Progressive Democratic Senator Frank Church in the Idaho Senate Race and we can project that in the Pennsylvania seante race the Republican candidate Arlen Specter will hold on to become the next senator of the state

Senate:
Democratic Held Seats:
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
South Dakota
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republican Held Seats:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
South Carolina


Savitch: Mr.Specter's strong performance in Philadelphia county is what put him over the edge and in Idaho while Senator Church did really well , he was unable to put up the margins needed to win in a high turnout Republican year as Idaho is a very Republican state.


1:45:

Chancellor: Well we are finally able to call Georgia as all the precincts  are in and we are able to project President-Elect Kemp will win a surprise victory here and carry Georgia and its 12 electoral votes



Kemp 372
Hollings 166

Chancellor: The reason we were able to make a projection is due to a very strong performance in Metro Atlanta for President-Elect Kemp where he was able to win by 2-1 margins in counties like Cobb and Gwinnet and was able to win the battleground county of DeKlab along wth make inroads in the more rural areas of the state and eke out an upset win here in Georiga.

We are also told that we wont be able to make a projection in Wisconsin as that state is within a tenth of a point and Senator Nelosn has asked for an recount and we are told he likely will get one and we are told though the recount should be done within a week so we should know who the winner is of this race by next week and find out whether the Republicans gain 7 or 8 senate seats tonight.

Anyway that wraps up our election night coverage and I hope you join us for tomorrow night half and hour election results special at 5 PM
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #516 on: May 29, 2020, 01:01:22 AM »

Results of the 1980 Presidential Election:

Presidential Race:



Senator Jack Kemp(R-NY)/Former Defense Secretary John Connally(R-TX) 53.1% 372
President Fritz Hollings(D-NY)/Vice President Edmund Muskie(D-ME) 46.3% 166

States Decided by less than Tipping Point State:

Georgia: Kemp 49.94% Kemp 49.76%
Maine: Hollings 49.83% Kemp 49.42%
Kentucky: Hollings 50.07% Kemp 49.59%
Alabama: Kemp 50.24%, Hollings  49.57%
Wisconsin: Kemp 50.13% Hollings 49.21%
Tenneesse: Kemp 50.45% Hollings 49.33%
Missouri: Kemp 50.77% Hollings 48.91%

New York: Hollings 51.03% Kemp 48.85%
Deleware: Kemp 51.53% Hollings 48.15%
Pennslyvania: Kemp 51.84% Hollings 47.66%
Lousiana: Kemp 52.14% Hollings 47.22%
Ohio: Kemp 53.01, Hollings 46.69%(Tipping Point)


Senate Results:



Republicans: 54(+7)
Democrats: 45(-7)
Still Undecided: 1

House of Representatives:

Republicans: 225(+31)
Democrats: 210(-31)

Gubernatorial Races:




What results mean:

Brinkley: First things first is New Deal Coalition was already dead and it was killed by President Goldwater and really President Hollings probably only won last time due to a split in the Republican vote so there is no doubt this coalition is already dead . Since 1968 the Republicans have created a new coalition of the Solid West , Texas , Florida, Virginia and strong suburban and rural performances in the big Midwestern and North Eastern States that made their coalition almost unbreakable and with more poeple living in Suburbs and not Urban Areas that will make the path forward for Democrats ever harder.

They will probably have to totally retool their coalition and that could take a few election cycles as they would likely be alienating some voters from their current coalition to make important inroads they need but it eventually will happen as Republicans were in far worse shape in the 1930s and 1940s and eventually came back and so will the Democrats

Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #517 on: May 29, 2020, 02:49:46 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2020, 12:54:52 PM by Old School Republican »

President-Elect Kemp names Head of Transition of Team and Chief of Staff

Head of Transition Team: Former White House Chief of Staff John Jacob Rhodes




Chief of Staff: Commentator William F Buckley




President-Elect Kemp meets with President Hollings in the White House for Transition Meeting:


Source: https://abcnews4.com/news/local/south-carolina-senator-fritz-hollings-in-repose-at-statehouse

https://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-jack-kemp3-2009may03-story.html

Chancellor: President-Elect Kemp met with President Hollings today and we are told it went well with both men putting aside the rethroic form the campaign to discuss ways the can ensure a smooth transition . Shortly afterwords the President took the President-Elect on a tour of the White House and they had lunch
Logged
Tron1993
Rookie
**
Posts: 80
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #518 on: May 29, 2020, 12:37:43 PM »

When you do your epilogue can you please put electoral maps for the presidential elections and put the running mates of each candidate?  Additionally could you put the political careers of the candidates (which offices they held and for how long)?  Could you also name who gets on the Supreme Court?  Finally could you put the congressional composition of the House and Senate and potentially any interesting people that were elected in each midterm (certainly new Senators and relevant house members though obviously not the full delegation)?

Sorry I'm a nerd (though aren't we all)
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #519 on: May 29, 2020, 12:43:01 PM »

You mean President-elect Kemp?

My 370 Electoral votes prediction was pretty close it seems.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #520 on: May 29, 2020, 12:58:39 PM »

When you do your epilogue can you please put electoral maps for the presidential elections and put the running mates of each candidate?  Additionally could you put the political careers of the candidates (which offices they held and for how long)?  Could you also name who gets on the Supreme Court?  Finally could you put the congressional composition of the House and Senate and potentially any interesting people that were elected in each midterm (certainly new Senators and relevant house members though obviously not the full delegation)?

Sorry I'm a nerd (though aren't we all)

I will do the map part though I’ll do it after the summary part, so I’ll do the summaries for each President first then I’ll have a post of electoral maps from 1984-2020 and I will also list out the political careers.

As for interesting people I plan to do lists of Secretary of State , careers of OTL Presidential nominees in this TL, and some governors of some states too .

As for congress, I will try though it will be very difficult


Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #521 on: May 29, 2020, 01:00:58 PM »

You mean President-elect Kemp?

My 370 Electoral votes prediction was pretty close it seems.

Thanks for catching mistake ,

Also great job with the prediction
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #522 on: May 30, 2020, 03:54:49 AM »

Kemp Selects Foreign Policy Team:

Secretary of State: Former California Governor Ronald Reagan



Secretary of Defense: South Carolina Senator William Westmoreland


National Security Advisor: Former OMB Director George Shultz



UN Ambassador: Professor Jeane Kirkpatrick




What these appointments mean:

Brinkley: In my opinion, it means  we almost certainly are gonna see military spending raised, take a far more aggressive stance against the Soviets , and a foreign policy in which international organizations take a backseat as well.

Chancellor: None of these picks, in my opinion, were really much a surprise at all  but yes I agree with you which means the President-Elect is sending a clear message that he intends to follow though on his platform at least abroad
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #523 on: May 30, 2020, 08:29:43 PM »

President-Elect Kemp Selects Economic Team:


Secretary of Treasury: Economist Alan Greenspan



Secretary of Commerce: Businessman Malcolm Baldridge Jr.



Secretary of Labor: Economist Thomas Sowell



Director of Office of Management and Budget: Congressman Del Latta



What these appointments mean:

Brinkley: Its a very conservative economic team, filled with two leading supply sides in Greenspan and Sowell , a solid conservative on the budget in Congressman Latta and again a sign that the President-Elect will return to Chicago School of Economic style policies as well.

Chancellor: Aside from tax cuts and deregulation which is widely expected to pass , we likely will have strong free traders in position, spending cuts, more responsibilities turned to states and more.


Logged
Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,413
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #524 on: May 30, 2020, 09:13:02 PM »

Based Free Trade, not based Supplyside economics
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.083 seconds with 11 queries.