Do we have a guess who Hayes is taking more votes from?
The Hayes internal said partisan split of her support (not including indies) is 57% GOP, 43% Dem.
I have a hard time believing that
Yeah, but after the Cutler fiasco, Democrats are not defecting Mills this year. Partisan defectors are low this cycle regardless. It’s not surprising that Hayes would get (slightly) more supporters from Republicans.
Especially if they’re not fans of Moody because they find him to be a dumbass or whatever, they have nowhere else to go. Caron’s trying to position himself to Mills’s left, and Mills is running as an unapologetic liberal. Hayes is running center to center-right on fiscal issues and center-left on social issues. She’s the only option for Republicans against Moody. My Hayes campaign contact has been saying that they’ve been getting more support from Republicans than Democrats for months.