TN: NYT Upshot / Siena : Blackburn +14

[2016]

Another former Gov running for office doesn't pan out, Strickland, Thompson and now Bredesen😶

You forgot Bayh, Allen, Lingle, Kerrey, and Pawlenty.

I wonder if Mike Beebe will join this esteemed group of individuals next.

You think Beebe runs against Cotton in a deep Red State in a Presidential Year (2020)? I don't think so.

[brand_allen]

Phil Bredesen's favorability collapse is nothing short of staggering. In NBC/Marist's poll from late August, he was at 61% favorable, 22% unfavorable, for a net rating of +39.

In this poll, he's down to 44/43%.

Campaigns are brutal.

[Yellowhammer]

Bayh-Bayh, Bredi. Pawlenty of better options were open, but you had to go for senate. You've been Kerrey'd off into retirement for good now I reckon.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

Different states and different factors at play.  Montana is more Dem-friendly statewide than Tennessee is and Bullock is the incumbent governor.  Bredesen's last election was twelve years ago.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans are paying more attention, and spending more funds, on the Senate. This time the map favors Republicans.

Except for a highly-unpopular President, the Republicans should have been in position to pick up five Senate seats this year while losing none. That means that Democrats would be losing Senate seats from at least ND, MO, IN, FL, and one of MN, WV and OH. Maybe six with the appointed Senator from Minnesota in a 50-50 election.

Republicans recognize that the Supreme Court is where the decisions will be made to shape elections to the favor of corporate power (2020 and later, when much more would be at stake and in reasonable flux), eviscerate unions, thwart any liberal reforms, and perhaps establish the Christian and Corporate State that the Right thinks sustainable.  Plutocracy! Plutocracy! Rah-rah-rah!

 

[Wisconsin+17]

Ouch. +14. Looks like Brederson kept his base of about 40 percent or so but everyone who was undecided broke Blackburn.

[Politician]

So, Bredesen is losing by 14 and has a negative approval rating? Color me skeptical.

[Technocracy Timmy]

So, Bredesen is losing by 14 and has a negative approval rating? Color me skeptical.

I agree. He’s only losing by 9 right now. The trendline of his campaign is going oh so well. He’ll catch up!

[Mr. Smith]

Bayh-Bayh, Bredi. Pawlenty of better options were open, but you had to go for senate. You've been Kerrey'd off into retirement for good now I reckon.

...Well played, sir. Well played.

[SATW]

I hope this is true!

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope this is true!

Why dont you like Bredesen

[The Mikado]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

Why would Bullock want to run against Daines rather than run for reelection as Governor? It's a career move that doesn't make much sense.

[ON Progressive]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

Why would Bullock want to run against Daines rather than run for reelection as Governor? It's a career move that doesn't make much sense.

He's term-limited, so if he wants to run for office it's either House, Senate, or President. There's no real path for him to win the Presidency and the House would be a downgrade, so he'd likely go for Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should target AZ, CO, NC, ME and NC, Daines is too strong.

[Figueira]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

Do you know of anyone who would be better?

The issue here is not that Bredesen is a bad candidate; it's that Tennessee is a very Republican state. Also Bullock is a current governor, not a former governor.

[Virginiá]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

Do you know of anyone who would be better?

The issue here is not that Bredesen is a bad candidate; it's that Tennessee is a very Republican state. Also Bullock is a current governor, not a former governor.

And that Montana is considerably more favorable to Democrats in non-presidential elections than Tennessee, at least up to 2016. They have been favorable to Democrats in those kinds of races since their state came to be. So it is absolutely a different animal than Tennessee.

I don't know if Bullock would win or if he even the best option, but he is a proven statewide winner and that does count for something. It'll probably end up depending on how Trump performs though. A wave against Republicans/Trump that results in his defeat could see a lot of surprising wins. Reelection or a slim loss (<= Obama's 2012 margin) would probably favor Daines.

[Progressive Pessimist]

But what happened to that Swift surge!?

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

I think Bullock's case would be more similar to Maggie Hassan-incumbent Governors that are still relevant and relatively popular running immediately for a different office against an incumbent Republican.

[Figueira]

Atlas last month: Bredesen is such an amazing candidate he's easily favored in Tennessee because of his amazing candidateness. Lean D.

Atlas this month: God, how is Bredesen losing this obviously Lean D race!? Clearly he's an awful candidate.

[IceSpear]

But what happened to that Swift surge!?

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

I think Bullock's case would be more similar to Maggie Hassan-incumbent Governors that are still relevant and relatively popular running immediately for a different office against an incumbent Republican.

Yeah, or Rick Scott, who is making the race far more competitive than any other Republican would have.

[IceSpear]

Atlas last month: Bredesen is such an amazing candidate he's easily favored in Tennessee because of his amazing candidateness. Lean D.

Atlas this month: God, how is Bredesen losing this obviously Lean D race!? Clearly he's an awful candidate.

Hey, not all of us are that schizophrenic.

IceSpear last month: Bredesen is a good candidate that is going to lose, potentially by double digits, because it's Tennessee.

IceSpear this month: Bredesen is a good candidate that is going to lose, potentially by double digits, because it's Tennessee.

[NOVA Green]

If Tennessee had either a Recreational Marijuana or Medical Marijuana bill on the ballot, this race would likely look a lot closer....

That is literally one of the only issues that will take the Millennial Generation of their Smartphones and video games these days to vote, outside of a Presidential Election Race....

Sad but true....

It likely sounds a bit bitter and harsh, not intended in the direction of any Atlas Forum members at all...

What appears to be the case in TN, is that despite the personal popularity of the former DEM Governor of TN, is rapidly shifting towards an "Off-Year Election Model" when it comes to LV screening.

What has changed, is likely that Middle Aged and Senior Voters in Tennessee, are now viewing the contest more from the framework of a "Nationalized Election".

Unless Democrats can create extremely unusual turnout levels in communities that tend to have much lower voter turnout in Midterm elections (African-American and Younger Voters), Tennessee is most likely gone.

Texas is now looking like potentially closer than TN, but even there was a steeper hill to climb to begin with.

Currently looking like DEMS flip NV, AZ in the SEN, lose ND and possibly MO....

I don't know what it takes for younger folks to hit the ballot boxes, but there is no "Mendo Med" Initiative currently on the Ballot in the Great Volunteer State....

Medical Marijuana might well make the difference in MO, in what is likely to be a nail-biter Senate Election in November, but DEMS need in 2020 to do a full-court press on this issue, considering the Culturally Libertarian streak these days among younger voters...

[Canis]

Another former Gov running for office doesn't pan out, Strickland, Thompson and now Bredesen😶

You forgot Bayh, Allen, Lingle, Kerrey, and Pawlenty.

I wonder if Mike Beebe will join this esteemed group of individuals next.

Why have retreads been such failures?

I guess a governorship even if it was a huge success can have a bunch of small issues that during a senate campaign is just machine gun fuel for attack ads

[Technocracy Timmy]

Why have retreads been such failures?

In the case of former governors running for a senatorial position, it has to do with the fact that voters process local/state and federal elections very differently. Just because they liked someone as Governor doesn’t mean they’ll OK them for a federal position.

It’s the reason why Vermont elected a Republican Governor in 2016 while West Virginia elected a Democratic Governor that same year (Justice switched to Republican the next year but he still won as a Democrat in 2016).

[Sestak]

Bredesen running is still better than Bredesen not running. In the event of an extreme wave, having him there could have led to a pickup that otherwise wouldn’t have happened.

[JA]

Is this evidence of the inevitable rallying of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents around Republican candidates? While I’m not suggesting this alone implies a breakdown of the “blue wave,” I do believe it’s yet another example. Republican-leaning Independents who may have flirted with Democratic candidates or were unsure are probably returning home to the GOP and will definitely keep the Senate non-Atlas red and the House May just barely flip by a few seats.