Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,842
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« on: October 11, 2018, 10:10:04 PM » |
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I am pretty doubtful of the Hispanic crosstab and the Rio Grande Valley crosstab. Although Cruz is Hispanic, and he did overperform somewhat with Hispanics in 2012 (against a non-name opponent), he did not overperform even then by that much. In addition, even Wendy Davis did much better than that with Hispanics and in the RGV - I suppose it is possible Beto might do a tad worse than that in some places, but not much. You can look at the red dots in the RGV and just see with an eyeball where they are coming from, that it is not really plausible.
So I think that probably just goes to the fact that it is not easy to poll Hispanics and the RGV in Texas, and accordingly it is possible Beto is doing a bit better than this poll would indicate. Of course, some of the other crosstabs could potentially be off a bit here and there in the other direction as well.
The rest of the crosstabs seem to make general sense. Beto is doing extremely well with whites (31%), especially college-educated whites (39%). Not well enough, but for Texas, that is pretty amazing. By comparison, Clinton had 26% with whites in the TX 2016 exit polls (and I am quite sure that even that 26% is actually fairly substantial overstatement). So if Beto can get anything like 31% of Whites, that is huge and amazing progress. The only reason he is not doing better than Clinton in this poll is that it is a midterm and so minority turnout is projected to be lower than in a Presidential race. But if Dems can also get those sorts of numbers from whites/college whites in the future, the TX GOP had better start watching out in Presidential elections when minority turnout is higher.
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