WI-Marist: Evers +10

[Gass3268]

Baldwin's numbers aren't that different than the Marquette numbers, but this obviously is.

[Gass3268]

Even though Marist does not weight for education, the likely voter same is 44% college educated, which is only 4 points higher than what Marquette, who does weigh for education, has averaged the past two months.

So this is a bit higher than normal, but not radically higher to the point you have to question the sample.

[Gass3268]

Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.

Keep this in mind before you start celebrating and getting complacent...

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

They are only off Marquette's average by 4 points, totally within the realm of possibility.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1050493796113416192

[Gass3268]

Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1050508075252236288

Also Marist weighs by income in place of education.

https://twitter.com/LeeMiringoff/status/1050557068837412864

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1050559327130583040