Note Trillo's 17%. Looks like Raimondo's getting off easy.
Does anyone think Trillo will reach that on Election Day? I know RI has an anti-establishment streak (see Healey), but I think Raimondo should be a little worried that at least of his voters will ultimately go to Fung. I wish they'd poll on second choices for all three candidates' supporters.
Also of interest:
- <20% are certain who they will vote for
- Raimondo has a major advantage on public education
- Fung has no clear advantages but is best on fiscal issues
Raimondo should be worried. She has a ceiling.
Trillo's a Trump Republican to the right of Fung. Healey was strictly a protest vote. I could see the Trillo voters deserting to Fung.
Don't overestimate how many voters acknowledge a left-right spectrum and place themselves on it. RI especially has a number of Trump-style populist conservatives who are loyal to Democrats.
Trump's totals were a couple of points better than the average of the last 4 GOP presidential runs, but in line with Bush in 2004. Trump was still under 40%. RI (or MA) is the most Democratic state in the US and the 2 US reps and 2 US senators from RI have won on average by over a 30% in their last races.
There are a lot of Democrats who are not loyal to Raimondo. That's the real issue with this race. She's under 50% as a Democratic incumbent and that's not normal for RI, particularly since Fung is not a strong candidate.
While Trump didn't hit 40% (he got 38.90%), it should also be noted that Hillary only got 54.41% of the vote due to third parties.
