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News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-Tuesday Campaigns: Hawley (R) +2
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Author Topic: MO-Tuesday Campaigns: Hawley (R) +2  (Read 874 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 11, 2018, 11:54:29 AM »

The October 5-6 survey of 1,052 likely Missouri voters has Republican Josh Hawley up 2 points over Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill – 44%-42% with 11% undecided. Each of the measures to legalize marijuana receives 62% yes or better.

Senate Race

Incumbent U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill finds herself in a fight to win a third term. State Attorney General Josh Hawley now holds a 2-point lead over McCaskill with only 40% of voters approving of the job she is doing.

None of the third party candidates have gained any traction overall, but in a race this close, the cumulative 3-4% that these candidates are garnering could matter in the final tally.

Similar to McCaskill's victory over Jim Talent in 2006, this race will come down to turnout. Democratic voter enthusiasm has been high throughout the Trump presidency, and if McCaskill can tap into that enthusiasm without losing her appeal to more moderate and conservative voters, then she still has a chance. If fallout from the recent fight over Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination increases Republican turnout, she could be in real trouble against Hawley.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/missouri-amendment-2-legalizing-medical-marijuana-leads-300729303.html
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 11:58:10 AM »

Who?
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 11:58:31 AM »

Eventually Dems will realize the need to create more states. Apparently it may take losing seats in the Senate while winning the overall Senate popular vote by double digits to do the persuasion, though.
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Pyro
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 11:58:36 AM »

That's it, Safe-R
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Zaybay
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 11:59:32 AM »

An R internal? And from someone who I have never heard of? Safe R.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 12:01:22 PM »

An R internal? And from someone who I have never heard of? Safe R.
You're goddamn right!
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2018, 12:02:56 PM »

It's from a non-partisan group who primarily polls ballot initiatives.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 12:14:33 PM »

It's from a non-partisan group who primarily polls ballot initiatives.

Looks like they are big on the medical marijuana referendum and the 15% sales tax for medical/cancer research. Bummer they didn't poll the redistricting one.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 12:39:33 PM »

Toss-Up, maybe Tilt R for now, but McCaskill’s definitely not done.
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marty
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 12:58:32 PM »

Honest question: What has McCaskill done in Missouri that makes her so appealing to people that are otherwise very pro trump and conservative in general? As far as I know, she hasn't brought in any sort of pork to the state.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 01:02:16 PM »

Honest question: What has McCaskill done in Missouri that makes her so appealing to people that are otherwise very pro trump and conservative in general? As far as I know, she hasn't brought in any sort of pork to the state.
NGA West in St. Louis.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2018, 01:09:43 PM »

Toss-up -> Toss-up
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KingSweden
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2018, 01:11:24 PM »

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reagente
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2018, 01:14:12 PM »

An R internal? And from someone who I have never heard of? Safe R.
Where did you see that this is an R internal? The pollster says they are not affiliated with either campaign?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2018, 02:04:44 PM »

An R internal? And from someone who I have never heard of? Safe R.
Where did you see that this is an R internal? The pollster says they are not affiliated with either campaign?

Yeah, its not. Saw the (R) and assumed it applied to the pollster, as thats why we usually use it.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2018, 02:07:33 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2018, 04:49:54 PM »

Hawley can't seem to break out past 45% in any of these polls. McCaskill should be able to too, but in a Dem-leaning year, I'd assume more undecideds will break for her.
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