TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +9

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Disappointing, but not surprising.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Maybe Beto can just start running campaign ads for the Dem Congressional candidates at this point and redirect his entire field effort to focus only on TX-07, TX-32, and maybe 1 or 2 others. Perhaps TX-23 could even still be turned around with sufficient focus? Also is there any law against him running ads in Missouri and Florida for McCaskill/Nelson? If not, so many millions flushed down the toilet. I hope everyone likes their Beto yard signs though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So, the consensus is that this is Safe R now?

That would be hyperbolic (I hate to use that word lest someone have to google it, but alas). It is the same as it always was. Lean/Likely R.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, this is funny (looks like it may be posted by a bot, but still funny).

https://twitter.com/AngryMobisHere/status/1050389277664845824

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I mean, I think pollsters are having a very hard time trying to decide who will turnout in the race and if their turnout models are broken their numbers will be too, early voting starts in 11 days and I think TX is about 50/50 early voting so that will be our first indicator.

I would agree that is the main (only real) remaining source of uncertainty. If the early voting is good, we will certainly hear about it. The top sign of actual competitiveness will be if we see DSCC/Dem superpacs going in in any way.

One reason why I think some people in TX (white people in TX) may be overestimating Beto's chances are that Beto *is in fact* doing remarkably well with White people, at least going by the polls. The problem is just that it is a midterm year when typically White people are a larger share of the electorate than in Presidential years, and that Cruz may be overperforming at least a tad with Hispanics.

That does bode well for the 2020 Presidential race - it is not too hard to see it being within 5 points with the trends among white suburbanites. But there is the issue of midterm turnout for the present.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It has been fun watching leftists from around the country throw away millions of dollars on the personification of the drunk spoiled prep schooler they just spent months accusing Kavanaugh of being

You are such a hack.

In this case, Panda is not really wrong though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Cruz wins by anywhere near nine points, Democrats should just forget about the pipedream to turn Texas blue in 2020. If even a candidate like Beto can't get close to beating Lyin' Ted, who nobody can stand, it's not worth it. A focus on the Rust Belt and Florida, Arizona and Georgia is much more promising and more than enough to win back the presidency.

TX it is not necessarily unwinnable in 2020. There is a major difference between midterm turnout and Presidential turnout especially in Texas, and Beto would be much more competitive if this were a Presidential year (my username would probably not be "Cruz Will Win" if it were).

The trends with suburban/college educated whites (if the Quinnipiac/Siena poll crosstabs are about accurate) in this race are extremely positive for Dems, and if they hold/continue could play a much bigger part in turning TX blue relatively quickly over the next decade or 2 than Hispanic demographics were ever going to do. It looks in many respects not too dissimilar from a slightly-more-Republican Colorado in 2002-2004. And in the case of Colorado, it was also urban-suburban/college educated white voters that have turned CO a lean Dem state, far more than Hispanics and other non-whites.

The issue is, however, that at least in 2020, if Dems win TX, they will already have easily won 270+ electoral votes elsewhere. But in 2028, or maybe even 2024, that might in fact be a somewhat different story.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

STOP WRITING A CANDIDATE OFF BASED ON ONE POLL

This is not the same poll as the other Quinnipiac poll that also had Cruz up 9. There were 2 different polls, both of which found Cruz +9. Anyway, and there is also the Siena poll almost done with the same result.

So, unless you want to advocate that Vox Populli and Reuters are more likely to be accurate... Is that what you want to argue?

I would also like for Beto to win - I did vote for him, after all. But wishing it doesn't make it so.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I just find it annoying that people are rating this Likely/Safe R when there's still almost a month to go. Obviously Cruz is favored, but O'Rourke is still within striking distance.

It is hyperbole to say people are rating it Likely/Safe. People are rating it Lean/Likely, which is sensible.

Yes, Beto could possibly have a chance if the turnout models are all wrong and there is crazy totally unhistorically huge near-Presidential midterm turnout of Dem base voters in TX, but we will see if there is any chance of that soon enough as early voting gets underway in TX.

The White college educated liberals/moderates love them some Beto. We just have to see about Hispanic and African American turnout.