TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +9

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Isn't this exactly the same as their result in September? Looks like this race is fairly stagnant. This is also the same as Trump's margin in Texas.

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Isn't this exactly the same as their result in September? Looks like this race is fairly stagnant. This is also the same as Trump's margin in Texas.

Yes, there seems to be movements that cancel each other out. Beto's doing better with women, but worse with men, and even though he wins Independents handily, he doesn't seem to be winning enough Republicans (who are all firmly behind Cruz now).

Interesting.

I still maintain that Beto can win, mostly because of how much uncertainty there is with turnout. Still somewhere around Lean/Likely R though.

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My worry is that writing this race off will ruin the (limited, but still notable) chance that Beto has due to Democratic enthusiasm, and that that will cost us a few House seats as well.

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Taking back the Senate was never realistic. The only realistic thing that can work in the Democrats' favor is to flip Arizona and Nevada while mitigating any loses at all

Uh, that would be taking back the Senate. Of course, North Dakota seems like a stretch.