TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +9

[IceSpear]

RIP Beto

This poll is gonna make a certain user's day...

[IceSpear]

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

The only example I can think of is Ron Johnson, who was down by 7 a week before the election. But yeah...it's definitely not something anyone wants to count on, considering >99% of the time it's not going to happen. He's going to have to narrow the polls in the last few weeks if he wants any semi-realistic chance.

[IceSpear]

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.

Not to be anal, but Heitkamp was only down 6.

[IceSpear]

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.

Not to be anal, but Heitkamp was only down 6.

People are really exaggerating how much Heitkamp was down by in 2012. She was tied in the Atlas polling average on Election Day and never trailed in a non-Rasmussen poll within six months of the election by more than 2 points. She also led more polls than she trailed.

I was using RCP's average which had Heitkamp down by 6. Atlas's average includes "Pharos Research Group" which I'm pretty sure was proven to be fake news, just like Overtime Politics and Research 2000. So their "poll" showing Heitkamp ahead was more of a lucky guess than anything.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_berg_vs_heitkamp-3212.html