TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +9

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, this is funny (looks like it may be posted by a bot, but still funny).

https://twitter.com/AngryMobisHere/status/1050389277664845824

[Terry the Fat Shark]

OK, this is funny.

https://twitter.com/AngryMobisHere/status/1050389277664845824

I mean, I think pollsters are having a very hard time trying to decide who will turnout in the race and if their turnout models are broken their numbers will be too, early voting starts in 11 days and I think TX is about 50/50 early voting so that will be our first indicator.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I mean, I think pollsters are having a very hard time trying to decide who will turnout in the race and if their turnout models are broken their numbers will be too, early voting starts in 11 days and I think TX is about 50/50 early voting so that will be our first indicator.

I would agree that is the main (only real) remaining source of uncertainty. If the early voting is good, we will certainly hear about it. The top sign of actual competitiveness will be if we see DSCC/Dem superpacs going in in any way.

One reason why I think some people in TX (white people in TX) may be overestimating Beto's chances are that Beto *is in fact* doing remarkably well with White people, at least going by the polls. The problem is just that it is a midterm year when typically White people are a larger share of the electorate than in Presidential years, and that Cruz may be overperforming at least a tad with Hispanics.

That does bode well for the 2020 Presidential race - it is not too hard to see it being within 5 points with the trends among white suburbanites. But there is the issue of midterm turnout for the present.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I mean, I think pollsters are having a very hard time trying to decide who will turnout in the race and if their turnout models are broken their numbers will be too, early voting starts in 11 days and I think TX is about 50/50 early voting so that will be our first indicator.

I would agree that is the main (only real) remaining source of uncertainty. If the early voting is good, we will certainly hear about it. The top sign of actual competitiveness will be if we see DSCC/Dem superpacs going in in any way.

TX Tribune always has great trackers with comparison bars to past elections

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I say NEVER GIVE UP. NEVER SURRENDER. He should focus on Tarrant, Williamson, Jefferson, Hays and flip some people. And go to TX-7, 23, 32, 21, 24, 22, 6, and 10 and campaign with candidates there.  We wont win the last 5 districts I listed but if we narrow the margins there, the Republicans may have to spend money on districts they shouldn't have to.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

To be fair, this poll was done using mostly landlines. Beto has inspired a lot of young Texans. How many young Texans are going to be using or answering landlines?

Obviously, I think that Cruz has a slight edge over Beto but I don't think that it's 9%.

I seriously hope that young Texans show up and that Beto wins.

[Pandaguineapig]

It has been fun watching leftists from around the country throw away millions of dollars on the personification of the drunk spoiled prep schooler they just spent months accusing Kavanaugh of being

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It has been fun watching leftists from around the country throw away millions of dollars on the personification of the drunk spoiled prep schooler they just spent months accusing Kavanaugh of being

You are such a hack.

In this case, Panda is not really wrong though.

[Xing]

Yeah, this one’s over. Beto will probably do a bit better than this, but Texas is still too red.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Winning TN is still more likely than winning TX

[The Mikado]

I've been saying for nearly a year now that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 7 points. I've seen nothing this entire race to make me think that that's not going to be the final result.

[President Johnson]

If Cruz wins by anywhere near nine points, Democrats should just forget about the pipedream to turn Texas blue in 2020. If even a candidate like Beto can't get close to beating Lyin' Ted, who nobody can stand, it's not worth it. A focus on the Rust Belt and Florida, Arizona and Georgia is much more promising and more than enough to win back the presidency.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Cruz wins by anywhere near nine points, Democrats should just forget about the pipedream to turn Texas blue in 2020. If even a candidate like Beto can't get close to beating Lyin' Ted, who nobody can stand, it's not worth it. A focus on the Rust Belt and Florida, Arizona and Georgia is much more promising and more than enough to win back the presidency.

TX it is not necessarily unwinnable in 2020. There is a major difference between midterm turnout and Presidential turnout especially in Texas, and Beto would be much more competitive if this were a Presidential year (my username would probably not be "Cruz Will Win" if it were).

The trends with suburban/college educated whites (if the Quinnipiac/Siena poll crosstabs are about accurate) in this race are extremely positive for Dems, and if they hold/continue could play a much bigger part in turning TX blue relatively quickly over the next decade or 2 than Hispanic demographics were ever going to do. It looks in many respects not too dissimilar from a slightly-more-Republican Colorado in 2002-2004. And in the case of Colorado, it was also urban-suburban/college educated white voters that have turned CO a lean Dem state, far more than Hispanics and other non-whites.

The issue is, however, that at least in 2020, if Dems win TX, they will already have easily won 270+ electoral votes elsewhere. But in 2028, or maybe even 2024, that might in fact be a somewhat different story.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Winning TN is still more likely than winning TX

Nope. Not anymore. IceSpear was right Bredesen is crashing and he's crashing harder then Beto at this point.

[Politician]

STOP WRITING A CANDIDATE OFF BASED ON ONE POLL

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

STOP WRITING A CANDIDATE OFF BASED ON ONE POLL

This is not the same poll as the other Quinnipiac poll that also had Cruz up 9. There were 2 different polls, both of which found Cruz +9. Anyway, and there is also the Siena poll almost done with the same result.

So, unless you want to advocate that Vox Populli and Reuters are more likely to be accurate... Is that what you want to argue?

I would also like for Beto to win - I did vote for him, after all. But wishing it doesn't make it so.

[Mr. Smith]

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Ron Johnson...also Heidi Heitkamp in 2012, and uh, nearly Ed Gillespie too.

[Politician]

STOP WRITING A CANDIDATE OFF BASED ON ONE POLL

This is not the same poll as the other Quinnipiac poll that also had Cruz up 9. There were 2 different polls, both of which found Cruz +9. Anyway, and there is also the Siena poll almost done with the same result.

So, unless you want to advocate that Vox Populli and Reuters are more likely to be accurate... Is that what you want to argue?

I would also like for Beto to win - I did vote for him, after all. But wishing it doesn't make it so.

I just find it annoying that people are rating this Likely/Safe R when there's still almost a month to go. Obviously Cruz is favored, but O'Rourke is still within striking distance.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I just find it annoying that people are rating this Likely/Safe R when there's still almost a month to go. Obviously Cruz is favored, but O'Rourke is still within striking distance.

It is hyperbole to say people are rating it Likely/Safe. People are rating it Lean/Likely, which is sensible.

Yes, Beto could possibly have a chance if the turnout models are all wrong and there is crazy totally unhistorically huge near-Presidential midterm turnout of Dem base voters in TX, but we will see if there is any chance of that soon enough as early voting gets underway in TX.

The White college educated liberals/moderates love them some Beto. We just have to see about Hispanic and African American turnout.

[Figueira]

My worry is that writing this race off will ruin the (limited, but still notable) chance that Beto has due to Democratic enthusiasm, and that that will cost us a few House seats as well.

[Beet]

It has been fun watching leftists from around the country throw away millions of dollars on the personification of the drunk spoiled prep schooler they just spent months accusing Kavanaugh of being

Privileged people who are oblivious to it = horrible.

Privileged people who use their privilege to help others = heroes.

[DataGuy]

What was this I was hearing yesterday about the NYT/Siena poll being an unreliable outlier? Also interesting is Trump's +5 rating in this poll, which isn't too far from Siena's "impossible" Trump +7 rating.

[IceSpear]

Is there any precedent for a challenger winning when he's consistently down 7-10 points in polls in October? It's hard to imagine.

Heitkamp in 2012 I believe.

But yeah I think Beto is going to maybe do a little better than Hillary.

Not to be anal, but Heitkamp was only down 6.

People are really exaggerating how much Heitkamp was down by in 2012. She was tied in the Atlas polling average on Election Day and never trailed in a non-Rasmussen poll within six months of the election by more than 2 points. She also led more polls than she trailed.

I was using RCP's average which had Heitkamp down by 6. Atlas's average includes "Pharos Research Group" which I'm pretty sure was proven to be fake news, just like Overtime Politics and Research 2000. So their "poll" showing Heitkamp ahead was more of a lucky guess than anything.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_berg_vs_heitkamp-3212.html

[MT Treasurer]

QU polls are sometimes pretty incumbent-friendly (they also had Nelson up 7 last month and Gardner was ahead by 8 in their CO poll in October 2014, for instance), but yeah, this has always been one of the most overhyped races of the cycle. See also: CA-SEN 2010.

I’m also having a hard time believing that Democrats are going to fare that much worse in the South/Sun Belt than the Midwest, but we’ll see.

[Wisconsin+17]

Moving this to 'safe R'.