TN: NYT Upshot / Siena : Blackburn +14

[Adam Griffin]

Presumably this is a double-whammy Kavanaugh event: a combination of usual GOP/leaners reflexively rallying to Blackburn's side over the "mistreatment" angle and a bunch of disgruntled Democrats protest-polling because of his proclaimed support for Bart.

However, that also means that this could reside (as TN Democrats aren't going to vote against him when push comes to shove, and GOP/leaners have no reason to be mad at Bredesen over it).

[MT Treasurer]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

These states/races aren’t really comparable, though. Democrats have a much higher floor in MT, Daines is a weaker candidate than Blackburn, Bullock is the current governor and not a pol attempting to make a comeback, the MT Democratic Party is better organized than TN Dems, etc. Bullock would have to run a hilariously inept campaign for MT-SEN 2020 to be a Lean R race.

[Senator Incitatus]

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?

These states/races aren’t really comparable, though. Democrats have a much higher floor in MT, Daines is a weaker candidate than Blackburn, Bullock is the current governor and not a pol attempting to make a comeback, the MT Democratic Party is better organized than TN Dems, etc. Bullock would have to run a hilariously inept campaign for MT-SEN 2020 to be a Lean R race.

I think Daines is in a stronger personal position (party/state environments aside) than Blackburn was starting this race, especially considering that he's the incumbent and she isn't.

But Bullock would be a much stronger candidate than Bredesen is.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Republicans were to secure a relatively safe majority in the Senate, Montanans might want to keep a GOP Senator for the power as part of the majority.

[libertpaulian]

lol, Arkansas Yankee seems to have this obsessive hatred for Bredesen.  It almost seems like he'd rather have Kamala Harris in the Senate for an eternity than Bredesen for one minute.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say the lead for Blackburn is 6, minus the obvious House effect. Taylor Swift still thinks that BREDESEN can win

[South Dakota Democrat]

I say the lead for Blackburn is 6, minus the obvious House effect. Taylor Swift still thinks that BREDESEN can win

Stop yelling.

[Seriously?]

Tennessee is what Tennessee is. Nothing shocks me about this poll given the fundamentals of this state, which veered further right in 2016. This state shouldn't be competitive except in a massive "blue wave" scenario.

Presumably this is a double-whammy Kavanaugh event: a combination of usual GOP/leaners reflexively rallying to Blackburn's side over the "mistreatment" angle and a bunch of disgruntled Democrats protest-polling because of his proclaimed support for Bart.

However, that also means that this could reside (as TN Democrats aren't going to vote against him when push comes to shove, and GOP/leaners have no reason to be mad at Bredesen over it).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

One thing that needs to be considered in this situation is that you have a set of demographics driving the elections that are set in stone and getting more entrenched. The demographics that will give the Democrats their big win for house, are not in a position to do likewise in the seats that will determine control of the Senate. Now it is possible the Democrats will gain the Senate, but I would say that they have to swim uphill and need a rather large PV win.

It is very possible for the GOP to make Senate gains even as the Dems win the House PV by 6% to 8%. Not a certainty because of incumbency advantage for the Democrats can give them a boost above their normal numbers in these places where they are the incumbent, but it is possible. This is a dynamic that has been building up a for a long time to where the Senate could be GOP leaning while the House is Dem leaning based on the urban+Suburbs/rural divide.

[Panda Express]

Took you scoobies long enough to see reality. I'm a battle-hardened pollwatcher, so I've seen this show before. Ancient former governors only fall by the wayside and that's why I put $400 on Blackburn winning months ago

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Took you scoobies long enough to see reality. I'm a battle-hardened pollwatcher, so I've seen this show before. Ancient former governors only fall by the wayside and that's why I put $400 on Blackburn winning months ago

Bredesen made the decision to endorse Kavanaugh and that virtually ended his campaign, but he's not losing by 14, more like 5-6 pointa