NV: NYT Upshot / Siena : Heller +2
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  NV: NYT Upshot / Siena : Heller +2
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Author Topic: NV: NYT Upshot / Siena : Heller +2  (Read 2285 times)
reagente
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« on: October 10, 2018, 11:53:24 PM »

Heller (R) - 47%
Rosen (D) - 45%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 01:54:31 PM »

Pretty sure this isn't finished yet. Didn't they say they want to get to 800?
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 01:55:05 PM »

Pretty sure this isn't finished yet. Didn't they say they want to get to 800?

NYT website says they are finished; final numbers are Heller+2, Laxalt+1.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 02:11:16 PM »

The gender gap is abit hard to believe.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 02:13:25 PM »

Pretty sure this isn't finished yet. Didn't they say they want to get to 800?

NYT website says they are finished; final numbers are Heller+2, Laxalt+1.

So their target sample size is "whatever the size is when we decide to stop". How very scientific.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 02:16:06 PM »

Pretty sure this isn't finished yet. Didn't they say they want to get to 800?

NYT website says they are finished; final numbers are Heller+2, Laxalt+1.

So their target sample size is "whatever the size is when we decide to stop". How very scientific.

In their defense, a lot of pollsters seem to do that.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2018, 08:39:49 AM »

I am starting to not trust NY Times, but TN poll is ridiculous
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2018, 01:38:45 PM »

What a shame! Hopefully with enough enforcement against voter fraud we can take this seat back in 2024.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2018, 12:57:20 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2018, 01:03:22 PM by McCaskill 2020 »

Already looking forward to these poll results in 2020:

NV: Trump +4
IA: Democratic candidate +1
OH: Tie
AZ: Trump +4
IN: Trump +5
MO: Trump +6
TX: Trump +11
VA: Democratic candidate +4!!!!
WI: Democratic candidate +8

The ensuing #analysis of these numbers is going to be fun.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2018, 01:04:46 PM »

Republicans need to be leading by 6 or more points in Nevada to be sure of a lead, if a Republican is leading by 2-5 its a toss-up, and if its a 2 pointer or less either way its Lean D, and if its 2+ points Democratic lead its Likely D.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2018, 03:15:45 PM »

Already looking forward to these poll results in 2020:

NV: Trump +4
IA: Democratic candidate +1
OH: Tie
AZ: Trump +4
IN: Trump +5
MO: Trump +6
TX: Trump +11
VA: Democratic candidate +4!!!!
WI: Democratic candidate +8

The ensuing #analysis of these numbers is going to be fun.

"Why is Kamala Harris so weak in NV and so strong in OH? Looks like 2016 was just a fluke after all..."

"Poll: Will Wisconsin vote to the left of Virginia? 72% Yes, 28% No"
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2018, 05:57:10 PM »

Already looking forward to these poll results in 2020:

NV: Trump +4
IA: Democratic candidate +1
OH: Tie
AZ: Trump +4
IN: Trump +5
MO: Trump +6
TX: Trump +11
VA: Democratic candidate +4!!!!
WI: Democratic candidate +8

The ensuing #analysis of these numbers is going to be fun.

"Why is Kamala Harris so weak in NV and so strong in OH? Looks like 2016 was just a fluke after all..."

"Poll: Will Wisconsin vote to the left of Virginia? 72% Yes, 28% No"
FL
Harris +7
NC
Harris +4(NC polling is biased towards dems)
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2018, 07:25:26 PM »

dems win oh, nc, fl, mo and mt but nv is tossup at best imo tbh
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