When will the next party system come up and what will it look like?

[yakutia]

Walter Burnham's Party System model argues that each cycle of the system lasts about 36 years. Picking the start of the sixth party system being in 1980, succeeding the dealignment period, this would mean the cycle ended in 2016. Could this signal a total shift in 2020 or would it be more gradual? What is your idea of what the political map will eventually look like, as far off as it may be?

[pbrower2a]

Social Democrats vs. Christian Democrats, roughly as in Germany.

[twenty42]

Walter Burnham's Party System model argues that each cycle of the system lasts about 36 years. Picking the start of the sixth party system being in 1980, succeeding the dealignment period, this would mean the cycle ended in 2016. Could this signal a total shift in 2020 or would it be more gradual? What is your idea of what the political map will eventually look like, as far off as it may be?

I mean, the map did somewhat realign in 2016. NV, CO, and VA were essential pieces of the Republican path to 270 from 2000 to 2012, but they all voted to the left of PA, MI, WI, and even MN.

[Sirius_]

Social Democrats vs. Christian Democrats, roughly as in Germany.

That sounds awful, and I do believe there would be a liberal party in that mix.

[Person Man]

Social Democrats vs. Christian Democrats, roughly as in Germany.

That sounds awful, and I do believe there would be a liberal party in that mix.

There's the Free Democrats...

[Tekken_Guy]

Cosmopolitanism vs. Parochialism. Exactly the trend that’s going on today. It’s the “coalition of transformation” vs. the “coalition of restoration” that Ron Brownstein always talks about.

[Orser67]

So I agree that the first four party systems were each about 36 years, but I'm not sure about the fifth party system. I actually think that the most decisive election since 1932 was the 1994 election, when Republicans gained control of Congress. Since that time, the South has fully re-aligned into the Republican Party, the Northeast has fully re-aligned into the Democratic Party, and Republicans have generally controlled Congress (especially the House). Just as importantly, I think that 1994 was when conservatism finally emerged as the most powerful force in American politics (after a brief heyday during Reagan's first term).

I think that our current alignment has a long way to go, and most presidential elections over the next couple of decades will look roughly similar to the 2000 election. If I had to guess as to the next realignment, I would say that in the 2030s or 2040s the Democratic Party will essentially have become too successful for it's own good (because of muh demographics), leading to a split in the party and a re-orientation of the Republican Party towards the center. Similar things happened in 1872 and 1836, and nearly happened in 1812. Of course, an economic crisis-centered realignment like in 1896 and 1932 is also possible.

[dw93]

I think this decade is seeing the current party system is unravel, but we don't know where to go next. The 1970's was kind of the same way in a sense that the last party system unraveled then, but it wasn't until well into the '80's if not the '90's that the current party system came into place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They should rename it the Labour and Tories and Whigs and have a Parliamentary system and have 1 full six year term and that would put an end to all this divided government.

[RINO Tom]

Cosmopolitanism vs. Parochialism. Exactly the trend that’s going on today. It’s the “coalition of transformation” vs. the “coalition of restoration” that Ron Brownstein always talks about.

Forever?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Cosmopolitanism vs. Parochialism. Exactly the trend that’s going on today. It’s the “coalition of transformation” vs. the “coalition of restoration” that Ron Brownstein always talks about.

Forever?

Did other party systems last forever?

[RINO Tom]

Cosmopolitanism vs. Parochialism. Exactly the trend that’s going on today. It’s the “coalition of transformation” vs. the “coalition of restoration” that Ron Brownstein always talks about.

Forever?

Did other party systems last forever?

Look who I'm talking to.