What can the NY GOP do to get back to political relevance?

[Suburbia]

New York Republicans have not won statewide since Gov. George Pataki, a moderate Northeastern Republican of the 1990s and 2000s over state Comptroller Carl McCall in the post-9/11 2002 midterm election.

The last time the NY GOP won statewide in a Senate race was legendary Sen. Al D'Amato, in 1992.

Current NY GOP gubernatorial candidate Marc Molinaro can't win, he is broke and running out of cash. I don't even know if Gov. Cuomo will debate Molinaro. He probably believes Molinaro is beneath him.

What can the NY GOP do to get back to political relevance?

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/06/nyregion/2002-elections-governor-pataki-coasts-3rd-term-mccall-distant-second.html

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle/cuomo-molinaro-1.21665809


https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/molinaros-campaign-running-out-of-cash-heading-into-election/

[Canis]

Moderate and take a stand against corruption

[Kodak]

Moderate and take a stand against corruption

Even that wouldn't be enough, IMO. It would have to be a combination of moderation on their part and a recession under a Democratic governor.

If the State Senate falls to the Democrats, the Republicans won't be able to win either house of the legislature without a recession.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Marc Molinaro is an awesome Gubenatorial nominee.  It would be nice if lightning struck.

[NewYorkExpress]

They could run Pataki again.

Seriously, if Peter King had been the GOP nominee, and Cynthia Nixon had stayed on the WFP line...we'd be talking about a very different race right now.

[Doimper]

It's crazy that George Pataki spent three terms as the popular governor of the second-largest state in the nation, only to immediately fade into irrelevance as soon as he was out of office. Even Giuliani has had a longer shelf life.

(Yeah, I know he ran in 2016, but who remembers that?)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It's crazy that George Pataki spent three terms as the popular governor of the second-largest state in the nation, only to immediately fade into irrelevance as soon as he was out of office. Even Giuliani has had a longer shelf life.

(Yeah, I know he ran in 2016, but who remembers that?)

Rudy has been kept relevant by two things:

911 legacy and Donald Trump.

Rudy also ran for President in 2008 and has been a frequent guest on political shows.


Pataki has not had anything to keep him in the news.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You need a Democrat in the White House, a very unpopular Democratic incumbent who is the candidate for reelection and a GOP wave midterm year.

[Tekken_Guy]

For starters, you need the national GOP to shed itself of Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

Adopt more moderate views, take a bold stance against corruption, combined with a non-incumbent weak Dem candidate.

You need a Democrat in the White House, a very unpopular Democratic incumbent who is the candidate for reelection and a GOP wave midterm year.

Worked out just fine in 2010.

[Podgy the Bear]

You need a Democrat in the White House, a very unpopular Democratic incumbent who is the candidate for reelection and a GOP wave midterm year.

Like 1994, though Mario Cuomo wasn't really that unpopular.  After 12 years in Albany, the voters were looking for an excuse to get rid of him, and they did.

[Tintrlvr]

The problem for the New York GOP is fundamentally the same as the problem with the California GOP: The party has lost most relevance. (It still controls the State Senate, but only because of gerrymandering and is very likely to lose control this year and fall into irrelevance there after the 2020 Census.) As a result, the base of the party has become increasingly occupied by radicals as moderate politicians in the state gravitate towards the Democratic Party as the only avenue to power. The radicalization of the party's base means that it can't nominate those moderates that remain or make overtures to the state's middle ground because the base won't tolerate it. So the party becomes an extreme party with no prospects other than howling at the wind.

Eventually, after decades of irrelevance, the base might become comfortable with moderates as the only path to power (or demographic shifts will cause the conservative base to shrink so far that it no longer controls the party - see what has happened to the Massachusetts GOP, where the conservative base is irrelevant - but this is not so likely in a state like New York that has significant areas that are "naturally" conservative, unlike Massachusetts), but the increasing nationalization of politics make that less likely now than it might have been 20-30 years ago.

[DINGO Joe]

Move to WV.  I'm gonna guess they choose to stay in NY and be irrelevant.

[IceSpear]

Move to WV.  I'm gonna guess they choose to stay in NY and be irrelevant.

LOL. You're one of my favorite posters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hope that another Hurricane Sandy comes, except even worse, and destroys New York City entirely so that nobody lives there any more. Then the rest of the state that is left over could be sufficiently competitive for Republicans to win.

[Intell]

Galvanise the white suburban and rural vote as well as people from the outer parts of nyc (proper). Combine this winning the rich Manhattanite as well as asain/Jewish voters.

The only way this would happen is busing crisis/government corruption.

[Frodo]

They need to nominate someone like Larry Hogan of Maryland, and win the governor's mansion, for starters.

[Suburbia]

Hope that the Cuomo scandal blows up.

[NYDem]

Hope that the Cuomo scandal blows up.

Republicans winning the general is theoretically possible, but this race is still safe D for now. It would require:

1. The Cuomo COVID scandal to tank his approvals, and have staying power. Things would need to keep coming up and making him look bad.

2. Ideally, that other non-COVID corruption gets brought up given his weakened political position. There is a lot to go through in this area.

3. Multiple Democrats to run in the primary against Cuomo, ensuring he wins with a plurality. The GOP can only win at all if Cuomo is the nominee, and if Cuomo is unpopular enough to actually lose, then he's at a greater risk of losing a primary.

4. Some sort of "Moderate hero" like Phil Scott or Larry Hogan winning the GOP primary. I'm not sure who in NY would fit the bill; I'd suggest Richard Hanna if he wasn't dead. Katko wouldn't be a terrible choice, but he wouldn't give up his seat for this.

5. A good Republican national environment. Something similar to 2014 at the least.

There are also a couple of outside events that could make a race competitive beyond this, like a major third party candidate splitting votes, but those are more unlikely.

Basically, everything would need to go right. It is possible for a state as Democratic as NY to go Republican for governor (VT, MA, etc.), but it still is pretty unlikely. Not sure that it would lead to any revival of the NY GOP, given the lack of such things in MA and VT, but it would be something.

[vileplume]

Hope that the Cuomo scandal blows up.

Republicans winning the general is theoretically possible, but this race is still safe D for now. It would require:

1. The Cuomo COVID scandal to tank his approvals, and have staying power. Things would need to keep coming up and making him look bad.

2. Ideally, that other non-COVID corruption gets brought up given his weakened political position. There is a lot to go through in this area.

3. Multiple Democrats to run in the primary against Cuomo, ensuring he wins with a plurality. The GOP can only win at all if Cuomo is the nominee, and if Cuomo is unpopular enough to actually lose, then he's at a greater risk of losing a primary.

4. Some sort of "Moderate hero" like Phil Scott or Larry Hogan winning the GOP primary. I'm not sure who in NY would fit the bill; I'd suggest Richard Hanna if he wasn't dead. Katko wouldn't be a terrible choice, but he wouldn't give up his seat for this.

5. A good Republican national environment. Something similar to 2014 at the least.

There are also a couple of outside events that could make a race competitive beyond this, like a major third party candidate splitting votes, but those are more unlikely.

Basically, everything would need to go right. It is possible for a state as Democratic as NY to go Republican for governor (VT, MA, etc.), but it still is pretty unlikely. Not sure that it would lead to any revival of the NY GOP, given the lack of such things in MA and VT, but it would be something.

Redistricting may screw him and if that's the case I guess there's a chance he'd try for governor especially if Cuomo is deeply damaged and the year looks good for the GOP.

[TrumpBritt24]

I didn't like Janice Dean's odds at first, but if she's the GOP nominee, she has a serious chance at winning over a lot of emotional appeal with the story of how the nursing home scandal impacted her family: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/cuomo-covid-nursing-home-policies-in-laws-60th-wedding-anniversary-janice-dean

She runs on that topic alone - she becomes his most challenging GOP opponent to date.

[Flyersfan232]

Move to pa

[I’m not Stu]

Nothing.

[coloradocowboi]

How many of these threads is it gonna take for people to understand that the answer is the same in California, Colorado, New Jersey, etc.?

The answer is stop campaigning on racism and homophobia, plain and simple. Only thing is, they won't because their base demands it.

[Flyersfan232]

Get a certain female rep house leadership