NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2

[Ebsy]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-races-nevada-are-dead-heat-n918251

Likely Voters
Heller (GOP): 46
Rosen (DEM): 44

[Ebsy]

The crosstabs are pretty funky, including this bit:

But Heller leads by 26 points in Washoe County (Reno), 60 percent to 34 percent.

Small n I know, but still, hard to credit.

[Ebsy]

Essentially, if you believe that Nevada will have an R+2 electorate in 2018, you should believe this poll.

[Ebsy]

Heller is finished

In Nevada, Republican Joe Heck holds a seven-point advantage over Democratic opponent Catherine Cortez Masto among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent – up from Heck’s two-point lead last month. OCT 26 2016

Yeah, Marist (among others) does not have a good track record polling Nevada. I imagine the Upshot is suffering similar problems.

[Ebsy]

lol how is NBC a "democratic poll"? Marist is not affiliated with either party.

[Ebsy]

Either these polls are off or Ds are not really up more than 5 on the generic ballot. A Heller win and a D+11 night makes zero sense.

If it's Nevada and the Republicans are winning in a Democratic year, the polls are off.