NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2

[IceSpear]

Heller beat popular Rep. Shelley Berkley in 2012 despite Obama carrying the State. Unlike Joe Heck Heller knows how to do well in a tough Environment.

Yes, the corrupt lady under ethics investigation was clearly a popular strong candidate. Heller got less votes than Mitt Romney did.

[Dukakisite1988]

What is worrying is that the Democrats tend to be overstated in polling for midterm elections.

[Xing]

Heller beat popular Rep. Shelley Berkley in 2012 despite Obama carrying the State. Unlike Joe Heck Heller knows how to do well in a tough Environment.

Yes, the corrupt lady under ethics investigation was clearly a popular strong candidate. Heller got less votes than Mitt Romney did.

Republicans in 2016: Heller won in 2012 even as Obama won, and Heck is a better candidate than Heller. Heck will win.

Republicans in 2018: Heck just barely lost in 2016 thanks to the Reid machine, and Heller is a better candidate than Heck. Heller will win.

[South Dakota Democrat]

What is worrying is that the Democrats tend to be overstated in polling for midterm elections.

Not in Nevada

[Arkansas Yankee]

I think there will be some voter who want Nevada as a small state to have a Democrat and Republican
Senator.  That factor ma help Hedi in Northwest Dakota.

Will that be enough?  Who knows.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's obviously House effect built into these polls, due to Kavanaugh bump, but it's subsiding now. In the next week or so, polls will back even

[2016]

There's obviously House effect built into these polls, due to Kavanaugh bump, but it's subsiding now. In the next week or so, polls will back even

I don't see any subsiding...certainly not in these Senate Races. Your Party is DONE in the Senate. You won't get it.

Trump is campaigning in Nevada next week as well as Arizona & Montana. Ask yourself a Question: Why would Trump campaign in those States if the Races weren't close.

All these Democratic Atlas Hacks told us for months NV & AZ are done for Republicans. That isn't the case at all.

More likely is that we have two entirely different Elections going on Nov. 6th: The Race for the House and the Race for the Senate.

This "Kavanaugh Bump Subsiding" is pretty much wishful thinking on the Democrats part.

I've seen the Trump Rallys over the past week. Thousands of People inside the Venue where he speaks and a good chunk outside watching on big screens and all what these Atlas D's telling us is that these people won't vote at all. Keep going with that craziness.

[Arkansas Yankee]

There's obviously House effect built into these polls, due to Kavanaugh bump, but it's subsiding now. In the next week or so, polls will back even

House effect and The Kavanaugh bump are different and separate factors.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

[BudgieForce]

What is worrying is that the Democrats tend to be overstated in polling for midterm elections.

uhmmm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What is worrying is that the Democrats tend to be overstated in polling for midterm elections.

uhmmm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

[Seriously?]

Even if Heller loses by 5-6 points, this race is and never will be considered "Safe" for either party.  If it were "safe," no money would be flooding into the state for campaign commercials.

Right now, it's a tossup and the most likely pickup for the Democrats in this cycle in the Senate as far as picking off a seat goes in a "blue wave" environment. That's pretty much it. You're drinking too much Kool Aid if you think otherwise.

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

[IceSpear]

Even if Heller loses by 5-6 points, this race is and never will be considered "Safe" for either party.  If it were "safe," no money would be flooding into the state for campaign commercials.

Right now, it's a tossup and the most likely pickup for the Democrats in this cycle in the Senate as far as picking off a seat goes in a "blue wave" environment. That's pretty much it. You're drinking too much Kool Aid if you think otherwise.

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

Whoa, you're back!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Even if Heller loses by 5-6 points, this race is and never will be considered "Safe" for either party.  If it were "safe," no money would be flooding into the state for campaign commercials.

Right now, it's a tossup and the most likely pickup for the Democrats in this cycle in the Senate as far as picking off a seat goes in a "blue wave" environment. That's pretty much it. You're drinking too much Kool Aid if you think otherwise.

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

Whoa, you're back!

Seriously? He's back?

[Seriously?]

Yup. Back and ready to be as right as I was in 2016.

Even if Heller loses by 5-6 points, this race is and never will be considered "Safe" for either party.  If it were "safe," no money would be flooding into the state for campaign commercials.

Right now, it's a tossup and the most likely pickup for the Democrats in this cycle in the Senate as far as picking off a seat goes in a "blue wave" environment. That's pretty much it. You're drinking too much Kool Aid if you think otherwise.

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

Whoa, you're back!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Okay I shouldn't have said Safe D but the chances Heller wins are very low, like 10-15 %.

[UWS]

Okay I shouldn't have said Safe D but the chances Heller wins are very low, like 10-15 %.

Don't underestimate him. He got elected in Nevada in 2012 despite the fact that Barack Obama won that state by 7 percentage points over Mitt Romney that same year. So he is able to win tough senate races in Nevada even if it is the only 2018 senate battleground state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Okay I shouldn't have said Safe D but the chances Heller wins are very low, like 10-15 %.

Don't underestimate him. He got elected in Nevada in 2012 despite the fact that Barack Obama won that state by 7 percentage points over Mitt Romney that same year. So he is able to win tough senate races in Nevada even if it is the only 2018 senate battleground state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

He won against a very flawed democratic candidate who was under a criminal investigation and even with that, there was an option that said none of the above, which appears to be what democrats/left leaning independents selected who couldn't morally vote for a corrupt person like Berkley but they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Heller either. Had that option not been there, those dems would have reluctantly backed Berkley and he would have lost. And he got around the same percentage as Mitt Romney, the democrat just did worse then Obama. The whole narrative that he's some great candidate is overblown and misleading

[2016]

Okay I shouldn't have said Safe D but the chances Heller wins are very low, like 10-15 %.

Don't underestimate him. He got elected in Nevada in 2012 despite the fact that Barack Obama won that state by 7 percentage points over Mitt Romney that same year. So he is able to win tough senate races in Nevada even if it is the only 2018 senate battleground state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

He won against a very flawed democratic candidate who was under a criminal investigation and even with that, there was an option that said none of the above, which appears to be what democrats/left leaning independents selected who couldn't morally vote for a corrupt person like Berkley but they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Heller either. Had that option not been there, those dems would have reluctantly backed Berkley and he would have lost. And he got around the same percentage as Mitt Romney, the democrat just did worse then Obama. The whole narrative that he's some great candidate is overblown and misleading

No one said that he is some great Candidate BUT he is an Incumbent Senator and that matters.

[Zaybay]

Okay I shouldn't have said Safe D but the chances Heller wins are very low, like 10-15 %.

Don't underestimate him. He got elected in Nevada in 2012 despite the fact that Barack Obama won that state by 7 percentage points over Mitt Romney that same year. So he is able to win tough senate races in Nevada even if it is the only 2018 senate battleground state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

He won against a very flawed democratic candidate who was under a criminal investigation and even with that, there was an option that said none of the above, which appears to be what democrats/left leaning independents selected who couldn't morally vote for a corrupt person like Berkley but they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Heller either. Had that option not been there, those dems would have reluctantly backed Berkley and he would have lost. And he got around the same percentage as Mitt Romney, the democrat just did worse then Obama. The whole narrative that he's some great candidate is overblown and misleading

No one said that he is some great Candidate BUT he is an Incumbent Senator and that matters.

Incumbency doesnt make a senator invincible. It can help, but only somewhat, and the effect of incumbency is highly based off of your personal popularity. This is why Baker is invincible, yet many D senators in 2010 and 2014 were not.

[Devils30]

Either these polls are off or Ds are not really up more than 5 on the generic ballot. A Heller win and a D+11 night makes zero sense.

[Ebsy]

Either these polls are off or Ds are not really up more than 5 on the generic ballot. A Heller win and a D+11 night makes zero sense.

If it's Nevada and the Republicans are winning in a Democratic year, the polls are off.