NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2
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  NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2
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Author Topic: NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2  (Read 6653 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #25 on: October 09, 2018, 04:30:08 PM »

IceSpear told me Dean Heller was DOA and candidate quality doesn't matter, though.

I do still expect Rosen to win though, but it will be close.

So Dunleavy being up 20 points doesn't matter because muh 2016, yet Nevada polls underestimating Democrats in nearly every race for the past decade is irrelevant. #analysis

Hey though, maybe this will finally be the year that Nevada polls are accurate. Just like the Republicans insisted 2010, 2012, and 2016 would be. I guess we'll see!
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Roblox
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« Reply #26 on: October 09, 2018, 04:31:15 PM »

hmm….

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

…Noticing a pattern?
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #27 on: October 09, 2018, 04:31:22 PM »


Agree...NBC is democratic poll too.

There's next to no chance that the democrats will win the senate. It would be as big of a shock as Trump winning in 2016 based on the current polls.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #28 on: October 09, 2018, 04:33:01 PM »


I noticed.











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Ebsy
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« Reply #29 on: October 09, 2018, 04:33:32 PM »

lol how is NBC a "democratic poll"? Marist is not affiliated with either party.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2018, 04:36:25 PM »

It's a toss up, let's just agree it's a toss up.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2018, 04:37:36 PM »

The Reid and Angle numbers are hilarious.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #32 on: October 09, 2018, 04:37:51 PM »

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Did this poll use Spanish interviews?

Pretty hard to believe Heller would be in the lead when he's only winning whites by 4. Even Obama lost them by 15 in 2012 (and Clinton by 19).
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xingkerui
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« Reply #33 on: October 09, 2018, 04:38:43 PM »

Heller could get 46%, I could see that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #34 on: October 09, 2018, 04:39:34 PM »

So many Democrats on here try to be funny and trollish in every poll thread, no matter the results; it isn't funny and is just clutter the rest of us have to sift through.

The poll is encouraging and shows Heller isn't completely cooked - this is Nevada though so I won't feel confident about this race unless he's leading outside the MOE.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: October 09, 2018, 04:41:40 PM »

It's a toss up, let's just agree it's a toss up.

If this race is actually a toss up, then 2018 is going to be an ugly (or at least severely disappointing) year for the Dems. But it's not. Rosen is still ahead in the polling average, and well...Democrats don't do worse than the polling average in Nevada, unless you're a wax figure with a droopy face and no campaign named Bob Goodman.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #36 on: October 09, 2018, 04:42:48 PM »

We have a Sisolak candidate running for Gov, all but except 2 polls came out and he's be behind the whole race. I wouldn't check mark Heller as DOA, yet.
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Roblox
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« Reply #37 on: October 09, 2018, 04:44:02 PM »

It's a toss up, let's just agree it's a toss up.

If this race is actually a toss up, then 2018 is going to be an ugly (or at least severely disappointing) year for the Dems. But it's not. Rosen is still ahead in the polling average, and well...Democrats don't do worse than the polling average in Nevada, unless you're a wax figure with a droopy face and no campaign named Bob Goodman.

^This. If heller is winning on election night, then it is a terrible night for democrats, and the top is probably gaining at least 4 or 5 seats in the senate, if not more.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #38 on: October 09, 2018, 04:44:23 PM »

Trump approval 45-47 seems way too high

Poll seems dubious on that fact alone

Trump approval in NV has been unusually high in other polls, too.
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #39 on: October 09, 2018, 04:44:42 PM »

But, but... unbeatable titan Jacky Rosen!
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xingkerui
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« Reply #40 on: October 09, 2018, 04:46:27 PM »

Trump approval 45-47 seems way too high

Poll seems dubious on that fact alone

Trump approval in NV has been unusually high in other polls, too.

Probably because Nevada is hard to poll.

Anyway, IceSpear is right (I know many on Atlas hate hearing this, but it's true), if Heller does actually win, it not only means that the blue wave is dead, it means Democrats are having a very bad night, and we're probably looking at R+5-6 in the Senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: October 09, 2018, 04:49:49 PM »

I can recall the poll that showed Sisolak up 10 points.  Right before Kavanaugh's confirmation
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IceSpear
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« Reply #42 on: October 09, 2018, 04:51:57 PM »

Trump approval 45-47 seems way too high

Poll seems dubious on that fact alone

Trump approval in NV has been unusually high in other polls, too.

Probably because Nevada is hard to poll.

Anyway, IceSpear is right (I know many on Atlas hate hearing this, but it's true), if Heller does actually win, it not only means that the blue wave is dead, it means Democrats are having a very bad night, and we're probably looking at R+5-6 in the Senate.

No! Democrats can make up for a loss in NV by winning TN! Wink
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Devils30
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« Reply #43 on: October 09, 2018, 05:05:10 PM »

Heller up only 48-44 with whites, something simply not adding up. The Latino vote in NV is usually closer to D+50 than D+10
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Figueira
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« Reply #44 on: October 09, 2018, 05:22:18 PM »

Not to concern troll, but these are not numbers that signify a wave.

I mean, losing Nevada would be bad in and of itself, but this state has a tendency to buck national trends at the Senate level.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #45 on: October 09, 2018, 05:27:58 PM »

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Is it me or have we been getting a ton of late polls? I posted that Beto-Cruz poll last week, but the results were from August!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2018, 05:31:45 PM »

The Trump approval being only -2, the same as his 2016 vote share is... something
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #47 on: October 09, 2018, 06:11:52 PM »

The Trump approval being only -2, the same as his 2016 vote share is... something
"He's at 44% nationally, Dem hacks, so him being only -2 in NV is perfectly reasonable."
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #48 on: October 09, 2018, 06:43:33 PM »

Likely D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #49 on: October 09, 2018, 07:23:48 PM »


You also said MD Gov was likely D
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