AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20 (user search)
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  AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-ASR: Dunleavy +20  (Read 2412 times)
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« on: October 08, 2018, 05:11:45 PM »
Walker needs to drop out.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2018, 06:49:09 AM »
Quote from: katman46 on October 08, 2018, 11:43:52 PM
Alaska polls, at this point in 2016.

President:
Trump (R) 37% (51%) (+14)
Clinton (D) 34% (37%) (+3)
Johnson (L) 10% (6%) (-4)

Senate:
Murkowski (R) 49% (44%) (-5)
Miller (L) 16% (29%) (+13)
Stock (I) 8% (13%) (+5)
Metcalfe (D) 9% (12%) (+3)

There's always one candidate that way overperforms polling. I would expect Dunleavy +5-9% over Begich, or possibly Walker.
Bingo. Third party races are incredibly difficult to poll, and always overestimate one of the party's support.
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