CA-IVN: Newsom +4
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Author Topic: CA-IVN: Newsom +4  (Read 5544 times)
Coastal Elitist
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« on: October 08, 2018, 11:15:29 AM »
« edited: October 08, 2018, 11:22:53 AM by Coastal Elitist »
Statewide survey by IVN finds a close race for California Governor. The reason why is because Cox is leading Newsom by a large margin among Independent and Other voters, 53-31. https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/1YCbo3xkprsfw27DnwL1HebRTYQbozg97/page/UGqY

Newsom: 48%
Cox 44%
Undecided: 8%

Lt Gov
Kounalakis: 29%
Hernandez: 13%
Undecided: 57%

Insurance Commissioner
Poizner: 39%
Lara: 28%
Undecided: 33%
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DaWN
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 11:18:23 AM »
My response to this poll
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TyNY2018
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 11:25:26 AM »
How reliable is IVN? As much as I wish the race was this close, these numbers are probably junk.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 11:28:34 AM »
Lean D. Closer to Tilt than Likely.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 11:30:19 AM »
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 11:31:40 AM »
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 11:46:30 AM »
Looks like Newson needs to improve his retail politics prowess. Maybe Tester could help out? #CandidateQualityMatters
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 11:48:32 AM »
Ok? So many polls saying Cox is in the 40's, I might actually believe he can lose this race by less than 20 points.
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TyNY2018
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2018, 11:49:21 AM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on October 08, 2018, 11:48:32 AM
Ok? So many polls saying Cox is in the 40's, I might actually believe he can lose this race by less than 20 points.
19.99 seems most likely
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2018, 12:18:59 PM »
Quote from: TyNY2018 on October 08, 2018, 11:49:21 AM
Quote from: yeah_93 on October 08, 2018, 11:48:32 AM
Ok? So many polls saying Cox is in the 40's, I might actually believe he can lose this race by less than 20 points.
19.99 seems most likely

Would be hilarious if 2014 happens again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2018, 12:34:29 PM »
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2018, 12:54:32 PM »
If you go to the methodology section, it states that this is a Facebook poll.

lol
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2018, 12:56:59 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on October 08, 2018, 12:54:32 PM
If you go to the methodology section, it states that this is a Facebook poll.

lol

This is why I have the race as Tilt-Lean D instead of tossup.
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2018, 01:09:56 PM »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

...what?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2018, 01:32:54 PM »
Lol apparently these guys worked for Gary Johnson in 2016.

It seems they are working for Poizner for Insurance commissioner this cycle, so this is either an internal or somewhere on the border of that.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2018, 02:10:00 PM »
Even in this odd poll, Prop 6 (Gas tax repeal) fails 46% to 38%. So much for raising GOP turnout
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2018, 04:35:42 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on October 08, 2018, 01:32:54 PM
Lol apparently these guys worked for Gary Johnson in 2016.

It seems they are working for Poizner for Insurance commissioner this cycle, so this is either an internal or somewhere on the border of that.
Where does it say that they are working for Poizner. Internals don't usually release crosstabs and methodology.
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2018, 04:39:47 PM »
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2018, 05:16:19 PM »
Suuuuuuure.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2018, 05:34:38 PM »
Quote from: Coastal Elitist on October 08, 2018, 04:35:42 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 08, 2018, 01:32:54 PM
Lol apparently these guys worked for Gary Johnson in 2016.

It seems they are working for Poizner for Insurance commissioner this cycle, so this is either an internal or somewhere on the border of that.
Where does it say that they are working for Poizner. Internals don't usually release crosstabs and methodology.
They have him listed as a client on their website.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2018, 05:39:14 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 08, 2018, 11:46:30 AM
Looks like Newson needs to improve his retail politics prowess. Maybe Tester could help out? #CandidateQualityMatters

If Tester can get some mega coattails, then Newsom can win.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2018, 05:50:56 PM »
Somewhere between Lean D and Likely D seems right for this, but it will certainly be close for California.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2018, 06:00:41 PM »
Romney's mega coattails are spilling all across the west from Colorado and New Mexico to California.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2018, 07:07:46 PM »
This will be close relatively speaking. That means a victory for Newson by 15-19 points.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2018, 07:32:06 PM »
Why are we getting so many bonkers CA polls?
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