ME-GOV: Full Slingshot Strategies (Hayes internal) poll released

[MAINEiac4434]

FULL HAYES INTERNAL RELEASED:

Mills 41
Moody 33
Hayes 10
Caron 2
Other 0
Undecided 13

https://www.scribd.com/document/390840892/Hayes-Poll-Findings-Memo-10-14-18?secret_password=egwz2WYfOa0o3C1DXt4j#from_embed

Trump: -9 favorability
LePage: -22 favorability
Mills: +13 favorability
Moody: +2 favorability
Hayes: +9 favorability, with many unknowns

It has Trump at 45% approval in Maine, but Mills at 48. So it might be a slightly D-leaning sample.

[MAINEiac4434]

The poll also has Mills winning moderates over Moody by a whopping 52-36 margin. She's also grabbing 16% of Trump 2016 supporters (probably ancestral Ds in northern Maine), and trails Moody among men by only 2, while Moody trails Mills among women by 9.

Hayes's support is equally split between Clinton 2016 and Trump 2016 supporters.

Hayes is getting 10% of self-identified Republicans, 6% of self-identified Democrats and 25% of self-identified independents or members of other parties.

Mills is winning all areas of the state (including Aroostook) except for the western portion. She has 50% of the support in southern Maine and 47% of support in the midcoast and 45% in the Acadia region. If those numbers are accurate, that should be enough to get her to the Blaine House even without Aroostook.

Mills is winning all age groups except 18-29 and 50-64, and she trails Moody in both those age groups by a combined 3 points. She is blowing Moody away with older voters, 51-38.

All in all, an excellent poll for Mills. If it's accurate, an 8-point win is not out of the question.

[MAINEiac4434]

Also, this poll was taken before Moody's debate implosion and before the discrimination complaint came out. Moody could very well have fallen even further in favorability and among women.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sort of odd that all three polls of this race had Mills+8 despite widely varying numbers for the indies.

[Person Man]

So the race improved to Likely D.