Missouri Scout: Hawley +6 in State Senate District 34

[reagente]

State Senate District 34 is Platte County (northern KC exurbs) and Buchanan County (home of St. Joseph, once a labor stronghold)

https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/1048659512805281792

Hawley-52
McCaskill-46

SD 34 is slightly more Democratic than the State as a whole.

2016 President: Trump +17.7 (state R+18.5 )
2016 Senate: Blunt +0.8 (state R+2.8 )
2012 Senate: McCaskill +17.8 (state D+15.7 )

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, McCaskill is in big trouble, and that should come as no surprise.

[BudgieForce]

Two things:

1. Its Remington which has have been the pollster that has had consistently worse results for McCaskill and consistently over polled Blunt in 2016.

2. A poll of a single state Senate district is likely to have a rather large MoE.

So while I agree McCaskill is in danger, I don't take much stock in this poll.

[UncleSam]

Two things:

1. Its Remington which has have been the pollster that has had consistently worse results for McCaskill and consistently over polled Blunt in 2016.

2. A poll of a single state Senate district is likely to have a rather large MoE.

So while I agree McCaskill is in danger, I don't take much stock in this poll.

Actually a poll of a single state senate district has a smaller MOE than a statewide poll by a significant amount. The issue is that the poll says nothing about the rest of the state, outside of prior history partisan correlations. Really it isn’t the end for Mccaskill at all just because she loses one state senate district. It doesn’t bode well for her chances though, obviously.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not good.

[Xing]

I'm a little skeptical of a poll of a single State Senate District, but yeah, no one should deny that McCaskill is very vulnerable.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Actually a poll of a single state senate district has a smaller MOE than a statewide poll by a significant amount. The issue is that the poll says nothing about the rest of the state, outside of prior history partisan correlations. Really it isn’t the end for Mccaskill at all just because she loses one state senate district. It doesn’t bode well for her chances though, obviously.

Population size does make a difference for MOE, but a state senate district is definitely too large of a population for it to make a "significant" amount of difference. It will make at most a fraction of a % difference of MOE.

See here: https://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

[Person Man]

Isn't that the margin Obama got in Platte in 08?

[Young Conservative]

Two things:

1. Its Remington which has have been the pollster that has had consistently worse results for McCaskill and consistently over polled Blunt in 2016.

2. A poll of a single state Senate district is likely to have a rather large MoE.

So while I agree McCaskill is in danger, I don't take much stock in this poll.

Actually, the final two Remington polls both had Kander up by 1 and Two

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_kander-5631.html#polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't a Lean D race anymore, looking like a Tilt R race

[mencken]

How can you get a decent poll of a state Senate district? These districts have an average population of 174K, of which probably only a third are both able and willing to vote in a midterm. With the poor response rates we have seen with the NYT project even calling every voter in the district would only get you ~1100 people.

[KingSweden]

How can you get a decent poll of a state Senate district? These districts have an average population of 174K, of which probably only a third are both able and willing to vote in a midterm. With the poor response rates we have seen with the NYT project even calling every voter in the district would only get you ~1100 people.

Fair point. Still, it’s a data point, but I wouldn’t elevate this to, say, a CNN poll from last week showingCaire +3 or a Fox poll showing a Tied race, both of which suggest this race is as we thought - an MoE Jump Ball election

[TheRocketRaccoon]

We've also seen State Senate polls from Remington where McCaskill does a bit better than what is needed for a statewide win in that district. It would make sense that exurbs + WWC might not return to Democrats as much though - possible she needs more suburban + POC turnout instead.

[BudgieForce]

Two things:

1. Its Remington which has have been the pollster that has had consistently worse results for McCaskill and consistently over polled Blunt in 2016.

2. A poll of a single state Senate district is likely to have a rather large MoE.

So while I agree McCaskill is in danger, I don't take much stock in this poll.

Actually, the final two Remington polls both had Kander up by 1 and Two

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_kander-5631.html#polls

Your link says Remington's final poll had Blunt up 4 and had multiple Blunt +7 polls.

[Aurelio21]

Your link says Remington's final poll had Blunt up 4 and had multiple Blunt +7 polls.
[/quote]

He appears to have confused "Emerson" with "Remington" . Oklahoman education is a complete republican success ;-)

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm a little skeptical of a poll of a single State Senate District, but yeah, no one should deny that McCaskill is very vulnerable.