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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ-Vox Populi: McSally +3
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Author Topic: AZ-Vox Populi: McSally +3  (Read 2622 times)
reagente
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« on: October 04, 2018, 11:03:26 am »

McSally (R) - 52
Sinema (D) - 49

https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AZ-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Oct-2018.pdf
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2018, 11:04:29 am »


They don't even have 0% undecideds, but -1% undecideds. I think this is the new "decimals."
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2018, 11:06:00 am »

Forgive me if I don't believe a poll that totals more than 100%.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2018, 11:06:55 am »

Same pollster that had Menendez only up 4, so color me skeptical.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2018, 11:08:38 am »

Umm that adds up to 101%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2018, 11:09:38 am »

These people make Gravis look like the gold standard.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2018, 11:11:50 am »

Vox Populi isn’t a very good pollster, to say the least.
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2018, 11:12:56 am »

Same pollster that had Menendez only up 4, so color me skeptical.

Im not sure how they got Menendez up by only 4 when pushing undecideds. So I am also skeptical.
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2018, 11:14:30 am »

lol 101%
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KingSweden
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2018, 11:15:36 am »

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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2018, 11:16:24 am »


The extra 1% is from the graveyard.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2018, 11:18:12 am »

Their gubernatorial result is in line with most others at least. We can infer at this point that there are going to be tons of Sinema-Ducey voters
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2018, 11:20:39 am »

Their gubernatorial result is in line with most others at least. We can infer at this point that there are going to be tons of Sinema-Ducey voters
I don't see how people can justify voting for a generic Republican simultaneously with a former Ralph Nader activist, but then again, the average American voter is an enigma.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2018, 11:24:56 am »

I read the cross tabs and it is actually 51-49 McSally. I think the OP just made an error adding the leaners to McSally’s total.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2018, 11:26:13 am »

Their gubernatorial result is in line with most others at least. We can infer at this point that there are going to be tons of Sinema-Ducey voters
I don't see how people can justify voting for a generic Republican simultaneously with a former Ralph Nader activist, but then again, the average American voter is an enigma.

Senigma has put up a pretty good fake moderate smoke screen during her congressional tenure. That's a large part of why she's doing so well with moderate voters; if she ran as an unapologetic progressive, she'd probably be doing worse.
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2018, 11:27:12 am »

hot take polls with no undecideds are just as bad or even worse than those with a lot of undecideds
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KingSweden
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2018, 11:28:51 am »

hot take polls with no undecideds are just as bad or even worse than those with a lot of undecideds

Inclined to agree
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2018, 11:33:01 am »

And by the way, how are we even supposed to use this poll?
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2018, 11:35:11 am »

Forgive me if I don't believe a poll that totals more than 100%.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2018, 12:21:59 pm »

Here we go again. The polls showing strong support for GOP, eventhough the Kavanaugh allegations are coming up. Same as what happened in 2014
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Crumpets
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2018, 12:38:01 pm »

The first poll to account for the hundreds of thousands of votes to be cast by "Shladimir Butin" for Republicans Tongue
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Bacon King
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« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2018, 02:03:56 pm »

Fun fact! There's actually a mathematical principle that explains why the numbers add up to 101 here. It's a bit of an advanced concept so it might be difficult for some of you to understand but click here to read the wiki article on this complex and fascinating phenomenon. Cool stuff, right?

if anyone had actually bothered to click the link in the OP and read the poll then you would quickly see the actual poll result is as follows:

45% McSally
42% Sinema
13% undecided

however the poll also pushed undecided voters to pick which of the two candidates they're leaning towards, forcing a choice between one or the other. Slightly more undecided voters lean towards Sinema rather than McSally so the 13 points of "undecideds" splits with 7 points for Sinema and 6 for McSally. Add those numbers together, apply that advanced math technique I linked above, and you get the 52% to 49% split. It's somewhat uncommon to see a poll force all undecided voters to pick a side like this but it's not exactly crazy or unheard of, either.

Like, there are several huge problems with this poll's methodology but the one thing everyone ITT is hung up on isn't really one of them. y'all need to actually read links before commenting Tongue
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2018, 02:10:38 pm »

It should be 51%, because safe (45%) plus leaners (6%) are 51%. It's wrongly added.

But this is a toss-up regardless, Sinema is favored though. She's more likely to win than Jacky Rosen.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2018, 02:19:59 pm »

Probably not the best poll, but there does seem to be a GOP bump nationwide occurring due to the Kavanaugh hearings.
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henster
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« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2018, 02:43:30 pm »

Rounded up 51.6/48.6 or something like that.
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