TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6
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  TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6
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Author Topic: TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6  (Read 3259 times)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2018, 05:56:36 PM »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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This is an actual “reason Democrats lose.” How this spectacle doesn’t get hordes of Democrats off their asses to head to the ballot box with a vengeance is beyond me.

Perhaps another way to look at this is from a relative standpoint, based on where the election cycle has been up until now. The whole "motivating them more [than before]" dynamic implies that people are even more motivated to vote than they were previously. Democratic enthusiasm to vote has been much higher consistently throughout this cycle; less room to improve or care more. In other words, a huge segment of Democrats can't be more motivated to vote than they've been for some time, so seeing more Republicans express motivation over this issue isn't surprising.

Of course, questions like these are pretty much garbage and impossible to quantify/judge with any level of accuracy or truthfulness...but given the GOP's deficit of enthusiasm and motivation this cycle, seeing higher figures from them on any one issue suddenly isn't necessarily out of the norm.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2018, 06:02:09 PM »

Better odds than Tennessee or North Dakota, perhaps I should've called this the tipping point state.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2018, 06:07:40 PM »

Better odds than Tennessee or North Dakota, perhaps I should've called this the tipping point state.

Agreed, this one does look like the tipping point state at this point. Talk about ugly news for Dems if they have to rely on Texas to take the Senate.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2018, 07:06:54 PM »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

That's why I found it ironic that McConnell wanted rush the confirmation at all. He seemed to think the opposite would happen. He is as much of an idiot as he is an opportunistic, cunning, evil mastermind.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2018, 08:19:01 PM »

Cruz is on the Judiciary Cmtee and said Dems want to wait til 2020 to fill this seat. We'll see which side was right, but Cruz think McConnell is right, and he's leading
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2018, 09:40:30 PM »

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.

I think you're seeing a malicious intent where there isn't one. The reason that it was shifted down to a 3.9% lead is because of YouGov's previously established "House Effects". Essentially, 538 is looking at polls Yougov has done in previous elections and has found that they are, on average, 2.1% too favorable to the Republican candidates. Also, if they were really trying to make it look like O'Rourke was doing better then he actually was, why adjust Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac University, Reform Austin, etc. away from O'Rourke?

Finally, doesn't it seem naturally counterproductive for a odds website to epurposely obfuscate what's going on? From a business perspective, wouldn't that just make them lose traffic? If anything, they should be adjusting toward O'Rourke to make it look like more of a horse race then it actually is.
But I believe that that they have You Gov posted as  D+.3 pollster.  So why deduct for GOP house effect?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2018, 09:45:35 PM »

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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2018, 09:57:58 PM »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

Don’t count on that. 

Also Lindsey Graham has becom quite a Star in the GOP.  He says he going to barnstorm the purple and red states for Republican candidates. Trump will also stump for the need of more GOPers.

Democrats talking of impeachment of Kavanaugh will help keep GOP energy up..

Let the me ask whether Dr. Ford’s declaration that she does not want Kavanaugh impeached will have any effect on Democratic turnout?
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Figueira
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« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2018, 10:48:38 PM »

There haven't been enough polls recently to really make heads or tails out of this. Cruz is clearly favored, but I don't think he has this in the bag.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #34 on: October 08, 2018, 01:14:22 AM »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

Don’t count on that. 

Also Lindsey Graham has becom quite a Star in the GOP.  He says he going to barnstorm the purple and red states for Republican candidates. Trump will also stump for the need of more GOPers.

Democrats talking of impeachment of Kavanaugh will help keep GOP energy up..

Let the me ask whether Dr. Ford’s declaration that she does not want Kavanaugh impeached will have any effect on Democratic turnout?

Imagine actually believing shît like this. Atlas is dumb as hell
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Badger
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« Reply #35 on: October 08, 2018, 01:25:43 AM »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

That's because McConnell is not looking for a partisan advantage, he is simply trying to fulfill his constitutional duty but unfortunately the obstructionist Democrats managed to delay the process, albeit to their own detriment.

Tee hee
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Badger
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« Reply #36 on: October 08, 2018, 01:27:38 AM »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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This is an actual “reason Democrats lose.” How this spectacle doesn’t get hordes of Democrats off their asses to head to the ballot box with a vengeance is beyond me.

Its Texas

And? It's still saying that it made 60% of Democrats more motivated, compared to 73% of Republicans. It would be one thing if this poll said that Kavanaugh had net positive favorability ratings overall, but this is referring to enthusiasm within each party.

Motivating them more. More is the key word here. Is it not conceivable that the number for Democrats is fewer because energy is already very high. There would be a number of Democrats answering that pole who were already turned up to 10 and the confirmation hearings simply weren't enough to turn them up to 11.
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