TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 27, 2022, 10:01:11 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)  (Read 7927 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,850
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2018, 07:13:06 PM »

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?
Two polls have come out posting his approval at 37 and 41. His approval is TN is probably more like 55.

No, sorry. Reality is not a choose your own adventure game. And that goes for Dem hacks as well as Trumpists.


Logged
Xing (reluctantly no longer on strike)
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,550
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2018, 07:14:57 PM »

Won't say that this is Safe R, but it's definitely not looking good for Bredesen.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2018, 08:07:48 PM »

This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2018, 08:10:23 PM »

Won't say that this is Safe R, but it's definitely not looking good for Bredesen.
So when one poll showed him ahead, what was this race, safe D?
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 69,884
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2018, 08:12:43 PM »

TN flipped on Harold Ford at last minute as well
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,429
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2018, 08:23:43 PM »

If another quality pollster shows Blackburn ahead, I'll start to worry, but for now this remains a Toss-Up.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2018, 08:28:31 PM »

If another quality pollster shows Blackburn ahead, I'll start to worry, but for now this remains a Toss-Up.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,972



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2018, 09:04:34 PM »

2020 likely voters are likely different from 2018 likely voters, so with the 2018 electorate-given Democratic enthusiasm-Trump's approval is probably around 40-42% nationwide.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,119
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2018, 09:12:51 PM »

Chill Pill everyone (Mainly Dem avatar's wigging)...

This isn't over at all yet....

Give me a few more decent polls that show similar results, then we'll start talking.

Logged
History505
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 03, 2018, 09:55:11 PM »

Lol with the margin that close, this is still a toss-up.
Logged
MycroftCZ
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 586


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2018, 11:07:27 PM »

Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,255
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 04, 2018, 03:34:06 AM »

This race is the biggest fools gold in the nation for either side.

IMO Texas is more likely to go Blue than Tennessee.

And honestly this is whatís wrong with American politics.

Watch the debate between Blackburn and Bredesen and there is no way in hell (if youíre fair minded and reasonable) you can say he isnít far and away the better candidate. She literally recites hit job one liners about Chuck Schumer ...íover and over. While Phil talks about legitimate issues.

If he were the Republican and she was the Democrat I would say the same thing. He is clearly the better choice but it doesnít matter to people cause they blindly pull the lever for Team R.
Logged
○∙◄☻•tπ[╪AV┼cVÍ└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,504


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 04, 2018, 04:03:53 AM »

Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.

This race is not a tossup.
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,589
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 04, 2018, 04:09:22 AM »

After witnessing white evangelicals vote in droves for Donald Trump and Roy Moore, I fully expect them to do so here too. This state (according to Pew research) has more white evangelicals than Alabama along with having very similar church attendance rates. It also has far less black voters to vote Democrat compared to Alabama. This isnít 2006; white evangelicals are a marching force for any Republican now.

Iím not seeing a victory here for Bredesen.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,778
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 04, 2018, 01:14:39 PM »

Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,850
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: January 13, 2019, 07:31:22 PM »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,682


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: January 13, 2019, 07:33:17 PM »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,972



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: January 14, 2019, 03:44:38 AM »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,682


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: January 14, 2019, 10:00:57 AM »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.

yeah but Icespear never called MO and IN safe R. Infact it was assumed at that time IN and MO were tossups while ND TX and TN were the lean Rs although in reality only TX was Lean R.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,117
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: January 14, 2019, 03:53:14 PM »

This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

lol. This is a goldmine. I'm sure if Menendez was up five in New Jersey he'd call it toss-up... right?!?
Logged
Mehmet Oz is a charlatan psychopath
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,087
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: January 14, 2019, 04:00:24 PM »

TN is my least favorite state in the country. It electing Blackburn by double digits only reinforces my feelings.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: January 15, 2019, 10:51:15 PM »

This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

lol. This is a goldmine. I'm sure if Menendez was up five in New Jersey he'd call it toss-up... right?!?

LOLOLOL

I gave up on Bredesen a couple weeks later
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: January 21, 2019, 04:30:36 PM »

     Tennessee didn't come through for the Dems in 2006 either. The result of this race was never seriously in question if one looked at the context of the election and didn't just take the polls at face value.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 12 queries.