TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)

[IceSpear]

If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.

Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?

Two polls have come out posting his approval at 37 and 41. His approval is TN is probably more like 55.

No, sorry. Reality is not a choose your own adventure game. And that goes for Dem hacks as well as Trumpists.

[Xing]

Won't say that this is Safe R, but it's definitely not looking good for Bredesen.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Won't say that this is Safe R, but it's definitely not looking good for Bredesen.

So when one poll showed him ahead, what was this race, safe D?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN flipped on Harold Ford at last minute as well

[TarHeelDem]

If another quality pollster shows Blackburn ahead, I'll start to worry, but for now this remains a Toss-Up.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If another quality pollster shows Blackburn ahead, I'll start to worry, but for now this remains a Toss-Up.

[Pericles]

2020 likely voters are likely different from 2018 likely voters, so with the 2018 electorate-given Democratic enthusiasm-Trump's approval is probably around 40-42% nationwide.

[NOVA Green]

Chill Pill everyone (Mainly Dem avatar's wigging)...

This isn't over at all yet....

Give me a few more decent polls that show similar results, then we'll start talking.

[History505]

Lol with the margin that close, this is still a toss-up.

[MycroftCZ]

Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.

[MillennialModerate]

This race is the biggest fools gold in the nation for either side.

IMO Texas is more likely to go Blue than Tennessee.

And honestly this is what’s wrong with American politics.

Watch the debate between Blackburn and Bredesen and there is no way in hell (if you’re fair minded and reasonable) you can say he isn’t far and away the better candidate. She literally recites hit job one liners about Chuck Schumer ...’over and over. While Phil talks about legitimate issues.

If he were the Republican and she was the Democrat I would say the same thing. He is clearly the better choice but it doesn’t matter to people cause they blindly pull the lever for Team R.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.

This race is not a tossup.

[Technocracy Timmy]

After witnessing white evangelicals vote in droves for Donald Trump and Roy Moore, I fully expect them to do so here too. This state (according to Pew research) has more white evangelicals than Alabama along with having very similar church attendance rates. It also has far less black voters to vote Democrat compared to Alabama. This isn’t 2006; white evangelicals are a marching force for any Republican now.

I’m not seeing a victory here for Bredesen.

[OneJ]

Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.

[IceSpear]

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.

Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

[lfromnj]

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.

Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

[Pericles]

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.

Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.

[lfromnj]

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.

Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.

yeah but Icespear never called MO and IN safe R. Infact it was assumed at that time IN and MO were tossups while ND TX and TN were the lean Rs although in reality only TX was Lean R.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

lol. This is a goldmine. I'm sure if Menendez was up five in New Jersey he'd call it toss-up... right?!?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

TN is my least favorite state in the country. It electing Blackburn by double digits only reinforces my feelings.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

lol. This is a goldmine. I'm sure if Menendez was up five in New Jersey he'd call it toss-up... right?!?

LOLOLOL

I gave up on Bredesen a couple weeks later

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Tennessee didn't come through for the Dems in 2006 either. The result of this race was never seriously in question if one looked at the context of the election and didn't just take the polls at face value.