ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)

[ON Progressive]

Yikes.

[ON Progressive]

Lean R at this point, despite ND polls being difficult, at some point you have to give weight to the fact that every single poll has Cramer up, and now sometimes by double digits.

Yeah.

Lean R with an iffy degree of confidence, but polls are polls.

Kavernaugh does seem to have a HUGE IMPACT on that Race. Less so in Indiana (Donnelly) and Missouri (McCaskill).

And I bet Tester is going to collapse as well in Montana if he votes against him.

How many of those 34% ever even considered voting for Heidi? I highly doubt any of them did.

[ON Progressive]

Lean R at this point, despite ND polls being difficult, at some point you have to give weight to the fact that every single poll has Cramer up, and now sometimes by double digits.

Yeah.

Lean R with an iffy degree of confidence, but polls are polls.

Kavernaugh does seem to have a HUGE IMPACT on that Race. Less so in Indiana (Donnelly) and Missouri (McCaskill).

And I bet Tester is going to collapse as well in Montana if he votes against him.

How many of those 34% ever even considered voting for Heidi? I highly doubt any of them did.

Heitkamp was always going to be more reliant on cross-over voters than either Donnelly or McCaskill.   

Voters who base their vote on SCOTUS aren't ever going to be crossover voters.

[ON Progressive]

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.

[ON Progressive]

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

The fact you had to look to an April 2015 poll (the definition of pure meaninglessness) to find one showing him down double digits proves my point. Feingold was only up 3 in the RCP polling average by Election Day.

[ON Progressive]

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.

Senator Rick Berg agrees.

Heitkamp had polls she was ahead in back in 2012, and no poll was as bad as Cramer +12 for her.

[ON Progressive]

Wow, the panicking over a garbage poll is pretty funny.

Just because you don't like the result, doesn't mean it's garbage. I hate this result too, but it's not even an outlier at this point.

[ON Progressive]

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

The fact you had to look to an April 2015 poll (the definition of pure meaninglessness) to find one showing him down double digits proves my point. Feingold was only up 3 in the RCP polling average by Election Day.

Actually, RCP indicated that two polls conducted in October 2016 (one in early October, another in mid October) had Feingold up double digits. The tightening of the polls only occurred during the final 2 weeks or so.

One was from Gravis and the other was St. Nobert, some pollster I've never heard of. In any case, most of the polls around that time showed a single digit race. It also needs to be said, again, that Wisconsin is a purple state and North Dakota is ridiculously Republican. That's why I doubt Heitkamp will come back like Ron Johnson did.