ND - Cramer +12 (FOX) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 07:43:38 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  ND - Cramer +12 (FOX) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)  (Read 11164 times)
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« on: October 03, 2018, 05:10:09 PM »

Lol
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 05:57:46 PM »

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.
Peak IceSpear. Declaring an incumbent in a year that favored their party DOA. I remember when Anthony Brown was inevitable.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 06:12:31 PM »

Most North Dakota polls (including internals and those from prominent firms) should be treated with a grain of salt. The state has no voter registration and therefore no reliable voter file. Pollsters have no idea who they are interviewing (with regards to vote history, modeled turnout probability, and other voter file data that pollsters use to draw samples). The state really is a political consultant's nightmare.

That being said, even a faulty voter file (which was almost certainly used for this poll) would not cause a 12 point deficit. Heitkamp is probably trailing, though 12 points is probably not the truth.
FINALLY SOME COMMON SENSE!
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 13 queries.