ND - Cramer +12 (FOX) (user search)
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  ND - Cramer +12 (FOX) (search mode)
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Author Topic: ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)  (Read 10997 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: October 03, 2018, 05:08:18 PM »

Wow. This one might actually be over.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 05:35:32 PM »

This might be a fun thread to bump in about a month.

To laugh at the delusional people who are pretending Heitkamp still has a chance? Probably.

According to some who have seen some internal polling on both sides, it is Cramer+3. He should be favored, but saying Heitkamp is done is an overreaction.

Source?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 06:02:26 PM »

Heitkamp had polls she was ahead in back in 2012, and no poll was as bad as Cramer +12 for her.

Seriously. The "But the polls showed her down in 2012 as well" argument is ridiculous at this point. Polling was never that bad for her in 2012, and polling errors don’t always go in the same direction anyway.

Anyway, we’ll get another ND poll on Friday.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 06:54:14 PM »

I remember when MT was a "difficult state to poll". Apparently it no longer is, because no one ever makes that point in the threads discussing polls showing Tester ahead.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 08:53:09 PM »

Tester has got to be nervous right now with rural trends.

It seems that rural Democrats have mainly recovered in the upper Midwest. But once you leave those borders it gets ugly.

Not saying ND is anything like Montana but Heitkamp's position has only gotten worse.

Tester definitely has some advantages in his reelection bid that Heitkamp lacks (Libertarian candidate on the ballot, Montana's relatively high Democratic floor, a fired up #resistance base in places like Missoula and Bozeman that has no reason not to enthusiastically support him, support from veterans, Rosendale being a weaker candidate than Cramer, the NRSC not prioritizing Montana early enough and allowing Tester to define Rosendale early and outspend/outraise/out-advertise him by a lot, the MT GOP being less competent/organized than the ND GOP, etc.), but obviously you’re right that Tester isn’t going to win easily if Heitkamp’s losing by double digits. Right now I’d say Tester wins by 3, but if Republicans are having a better than expected night, a Rosendale win is very much possible.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 10:37:03 PM »

With this reply, this thread now has the most replies of any thread on this board.

Just wait until a Rosendale +1/2 poll comes out somewhere. It will make this thread look like a harmonious interaction between calm and sensible Atlas posters.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 10:47:44 PM »

With this reply, this thread now has the most replies of any thread on this board.

Just wait until a Rosendale +1/2 poll comes out somewhere. It will make this thread look like a harmonious interaction between calm and sensible Atlas posters.

Oddly enough Indiana seems to be the most popular, as 3 of the top 6 are Indiana threads. Who would've thought?

Not Missouri or Florida, lol? Color me surprised.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2018, 02:45:11 AM »

The battle for the senate is over. The comments didn’t hurt him at all. Bredesen and O’Rourke are slipping away and Hyde-Smith will easily make it to the runoff.

Aren’t you the guy harping on about the giant Democratic enthusiasm edge and constantly predicting a massive D tsunami? Because that’s inconsistent with this comment.
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