ND - Cramer +12 (FOX)
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bilaps
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« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2018, 05:39:10 PM »

This might be a fun thread to bump in about a month.

To laugh at the delusional people who are pretending Heitkamp still has a chance? Probably.

According to some who have seen some internal polling on both sides, it is Cramer+3. He should be favored, but saying Heitkamp is done is an overreaction.

Source?

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Virginiá
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« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2018, 05:40:56 PM »

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.
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« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2018, 05:43:56 PM »

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

Dammit where's my salt emoticon?
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TPIG
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« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2018, 05:46:09 PM »

Mostly great news. This keeps Dems one more seat away from a majority, which they certainly don't deserve with their despicable handling of the Kavanaugh situation. However, I say only 'mostly' great because this means that there will be even less ideological diversity among the Democratic senators, as a leading red-state Democrat is knocked off.

Still, on the whole, good news.

With all due respect, this kind of criticism regarding the courts is meaningless coming from Republicans. You guys have made it abundantly clear that you do not accept that Democrats have every right to pick judges when in power, just like Republicans do, and that apparently the federal judiciary is the sole property of the Republican Party, so why should Democrats do anything but impede your party's attempts to stack it?

This is what happens when you stand by as your party engages in scumbag partisan power plays. You ruin the idea of bipartisanship and make everything a "win-at-all-costs" battle. And you turn people like me, who just wanted each party to accept that if their opponents control the White House, they get to pick federal judges within reason, into jaded political activists who now want their party to pack the courts in a long-shot effort to teach the opposition that the world doesn't revolve around them.

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.
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« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2018, 05:47:03 PM »

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, most people thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2018, 05:47:36 PM »

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.
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« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2018, 05:50:15 PM »

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

The fact you had to look to an April 2015 poll (the definition of pure meaninglessness) to find one showing him down double digits proves my point. Feingold was only up 3 in the RCP polling average by Election Day.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2018, 05:50:47 PM »

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2018, 05:51:12 PM »

This might be a fun thread to bump in about a month.

To laugh at the delusional people who are pretending Heitkamp still has a chance? Probably.

According to some who have seen some internal polling on both sides, it is Cramer+3. He should be favored, but saying Heitkamp is done is an overreaction.

Source?

Yeah, I am wrong. It was from an article from October of last year. It just showed up on my twitter feed.

Sorry about that.
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« Reply #34 on: October 03, 2018, 05:51:46 PM »

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

I mean, unless you think Democrats recruited Ford to accuse Kavanaugh, it's not really fair to put it all on them. It's not our fault you guys picked someone with a history of heavy drinking and partying in HS/college who seemed to engage in questionable behavior with women.

And as dismayed as Republicans may be, there is an equally-if-not-bigger group of Democrats who for the life of them can't understand why you guys are clinging to Kavanaugh as if he's the only possible judge for the job, and would risk undermining the public's trust and confidence in the Supreme Court instead of just picking someone else and ramming through their confirmation before January. To me at least, it shows a stunning level of recklessness, which unfortunately isn't exactly new for the GOP, who have been undermining confidence in our elections almost every cycle, with fake claims of fraud, particularly in close elections (re: North Carolina).

It's nice that you don't agree with your party, truly, but the same can't be said for the vast majority of your partisan compatriots.
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2018, 05:54:02 PM »

Triaging this race would be pointless since it’s so inexpensive, but yikes. Yet another atlas piece of conventional wisdom(Heitkamp is ultra safe because of Muh retail politics) disproven
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #36 on: October 03, 2018, 05:54:03 PM »

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.
Senator Rick Berg agrees.

Heitkamp had polls she was ahead in back in 2012, and no poll was as bad as Cramer +12 for her.
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« Reply #37 on: October 03, 2018, 05:54:29 PM »

Let's just settle this:

https://www.strawpoll.me/16577236
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IceSpear
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« Reply #38 on: October 03, 2018, 05:55:29 PM »

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.
Senator Rick Berg agrees.

Just like how Sen. Mourdock and Sen. Akin agreed that Cramer's "gaffe" would be devastating? lol
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« Reply #39 on: October 03, 2018, 05:56:37 PM »

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.
Senator Rick Berg agrees.

You've said this multiple times and it's not nearly as intelligent as you think it is. I'm seriously considering putting it in the Wulfric well.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2018, 05:57:32 PM »

Wow, the panicking over a garbage poll is pretty funny.

Just because you don't like the result, doesn't mean it's garbage. I hate this result too, but it's not even an outlier at this point.
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« Reply #41 on: October 03, 2018, 05:57:46 PM »

Two polls showing Heitkamp down by double digits? Damn. Lean R?

Safe R actually. Heitkamp might not lose by double digits, but unless Cramer is caught touching kids over the next month she's DOA.
Peak IceSpear. Declaring an incumbent in a year that favored their party DOA. I remember when Anthony Brown was inevitable.
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« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2018, 05:59:29 PM »

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

The fact you had to look to an April 2015 poll (the definition of pure meaninglessness) to find one showing him down double digits proves my point. Feingold was only up 3 in the RCP polling average by Election Day.

Actually, RCP indicated that two polls conducted in October 2016 (one in early October, another in mid October) had Feingold up double digits. The tightening of the polls only occurred during the final 2 weeks or so.
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« Reply #43 on: October 03, 2018, 06:00:17 PM »

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

I mean, unless you think Democrats recruited Ford to accuse Kavanaugh, it's not really fair to put it all on them. It's not our fault you guys picked someone with a history of heavy drinking and partying in HS/college who seemed to engage in questionable behavior with women.

And as dismayed as Republicans may be, there is an equally-if-not-bigger group of Democrats who for the life of them can't understand why you guys are clinging to Kavanaugh as if he's the only possible judge for the job, and would risk undermining the public's trust and confidence in the Supreme Court instead of just picking someone else and ramming through their confirmation before January. To me at least, it shows a stunning level of recklessness, which unfortunately isn't exactly new for the GOP, who have been undermining confidence in our elections almost every cycle, with fake claims of fraud, particularly in close elections (re: North Carolina).

It's nice that you don't agree with your party, truly, but the same can't be said for the vast majority of your partisan compatriots.

You better read what Hugh Hewitt tweeted half an hour ago. That he thinks the GOP will collapse if they don't get Kavernaugh through and I'm with him on that. There is a HUGE Difference clinging onto the Senate (which I think they will if he's confirmed) and losing 30 House Seats instead of 60+.
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TPIG
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« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2018, 06:00:48 PM »

I actually wholly agree with you on this issue. The current (and relatively newfound) partisan rancor surrounding Supreme Court nominations is frankly disgusting, and BOTH sides  of the senate refuse to act as a mature, unified body determined to assess the qualifications of nominees.

That being said, this case with Kavanaugh is particularly sinister, as it not only involves one side trying to delay his confirmation but also involves, quite literally, the ruining of his life and that of his family with no substantiated evidence.

I mean, unless you think Democrats recruited Ford to accuse Kavanaugh, it's not really fair to put it all on them. It's not our fault you guys picked someone with a history of heavy drinking and partying in HS/college who seemed to engage in questionable behavior with women.

And as dismayed as Republicans may be, there is an equally-if-not-bigger group of Democrats who for the life of them can't understand why you guys are clinging to Kavanaugh as if he's the only possible judge for the job, and would risk undermining the public's trust and confidence in the Supreme Court instead of just picking someone else and ramming through their confirmation before January. To me at least, it shows a stunning level of recklessness, which unfortunately isn't exactly new for the GOP, who have been undermining confidence in our elections almost every cycle, with fake claims of fraud, particularly in close elections (re: North Carolina).

It's nice that you don't agree with your party, truly, but the same can't be said for the vast majority of your partisan compatriots.

The reason I, and nearly all Republicans, both politicians and regular citizens, are so vehemently in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation is that if his nomination is withdrawn, it sends a message that any future Supreme Court nominee (or really any official) can be taken down and have their lives ruined by unsubstantiated claims. That would be a travesty for justice, the rule of law, our politics, and would only encourage more of this* in the future.

* - A political side using unsubstantiated allegations as a political weapon to sink an otherwise supremely qualified person. I'm not saying that Ford may not have been, at some point, a victim of sexual assault.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2018, 06:02:23 PM »

Let me remind everyone that at this point in the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election, nearly everyone thought that Ron Johnson was doomed against Russ Feingold. We all know how that turned out...

Ron Johnson was also in a much more purple state, and was never down double digits.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211149.0

The fact you had to look to an April 2015 poll (the definition of pure meaninglessness) to find one showing him down double digits proves my point. Feingold was only up 3 in the RCP polling average by Election Day.

Actually, RCP indicated that two polls conducted in October 2016 (one in early October, another in mid October) had Feingold up double digits. The tightening of the polls only occurred during the final 2 weeks or so.

One was from Gravis and the other was St. Nobert, some pollster I've never heard of. In any case, most of the polls around that time showed a single digit race. It also needs to be said, again, that Wisconsin is a purple state and North Dakota is ridiculously Republican. That's why I doubt Heitkamp will come back like Ron Johnson did.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2018, 06:02:26 PM »

Heitkamp had polls she was ahead in back in 2012, and no poll was as bad as Cramer +12 for her.

Seriously. The "But the polls showed her down in 2012 as well" argument is ridiculous at this point. Polling was never that bad for her in 2012, and polling errors don’t always go in the same direction anyway.

Anyway, we’ll get another ND poll on Friday.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2018, 06:04:43 PM »

Quote
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I am sorry, but you have to be one privileged bastard to believe Kavanaugh's life is going to be ruined in any other way.

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« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2018, 06:08:34 PM »

Hackery never ceases to amaze. This poll is junk, and should be thrown away.

Were you trying to be ironic?
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2018, 06:09:35 PM »

Hackery never ceases to amaze. This poll is junk, and should be thrown away.

Were you trying to be ironic?
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