Comments regarding the Kavanaugh nomination (thread 2)

[Yank2133]

Manchin won’t be the deciding vote.

This comes down to Collins.

[2016]

I can't see Manchin allowing himself to be the deciding vote in favor of confirmation if Murkowski and Collins both vote no.  So he'll vote the same way as Collins, and those two votes will decide the outcome.

Why not? I've CNN on and Joe Lockhart (although he is a D) is pretty saavy.

Manchin ain't going to vote no when 2/3 of WV Voters want Kavernaugh to be confirmed. That would be Political Suicide and he knows it.

[2016]

Manchin won’t be the deciding vote.

This comes down to Collins.

No, it won't. It comes down to Flake, Manchin.

[OneJ]

No surprise about Murkowski.

Sexual assault is a big problem in Native American communities in Alaska and they saved her ass after she got primiared in 2010.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1048225287731916800

Interesting.

If Collins vote Yes, she might as well announce her retirement.

Pretty much.

If Collins vote Yes, she might as well announce her retirement.

But if Heitkamp votes no she was going to lose all along right

I think it's rather too early to say, so it's just best to see what happens on Election Night. While a lot of attention is on the SCOTUS nomination and Republicans are becoming somewhat more energized about it, there's a possibility that it might fizzle out almost a whole month later. Attention span is not a particularly huge strength of the average American and most people (normally) don't care about SCOTUS enough to be motivated by it and go out to vote.

[Silent Hunter]

Most people don't vote in mid-terms anyway.

[2016]

If Collins vote Yes, she might as well announce her retirement.

Which leads me to believe that Kavernaughs fate will be decided by Flake, Manchin.

Flake already said last week he'll vote yes. Now he voted YES to proceed. I don't think there is any wriggle room for him here.

I predicted Flake, Manchin will vote YES on the Final Vote; The two Women will vote NO. Daines has to come back to cast his vote and Pence breaks the Tie.

Collins would has voted NAY on cloture in this case. She voted NAYs both times during Obamacare repeal.

I'm pretty convinced that Collins will vote NO on Final Vote. Sexual Assault is a huge Issue for Women and Collins just happens to be a Female.

[kelestian]

If Collins vote Yes, she might as well announce her retirement.

Which leads me to believe that Kavernaughs fate will be decided by Flake, Manchin.

Flake already said last week he'll vote yes. Now he voted YES to proceed. I don't think there is any wriggle room for him here.

I predicted Flake, Manchin will vote YES on the Final Vote; The two Women will vote NO. Daines has to come back to cast his vote and Pence breaks the Tie.

Collins would has voted NAY on cloture in this case. She voted NAYs both times during Obamacare repeal.

I'm pretty convinced that Collins will vote NO on Final Vote. Sexual Assault is a huge Issue for Women and Collins just happens to be a Female.

She praised FBI investigation, so i think she is Lean YEA. I'd be more worried about Flake, he can easily flip-flopped again

[Yank2133]

Manchin won’t be the deciding vote.

This comes down to Collins.

No, it won't. It comes down to Flake, Manchin.

I doubt that.

The only scenarios in which I see Manchin vote yay is if both Flake and Collins vote yay or nay.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1048238318297780224

[bilaps]

Manchin votes AYE

Should be kicked in the shin

So, unless there is Monkey Business, its going to be 49-50 tomorrow. I can see that Collins agrees to vote Aye, but then Manchin turns his vote to NO and Pence can't can't break the tie.

What? How?

Daines has a wedding he insists that he goes to.

Daines said he would make it.

[2016]

Manchin votes AYE

Should be kicked in the shin

So, unless there is Monkey Business, its going to be 49-50 tomorrow. I can see that Collins agrees to vote Aye, but then Manchin turns his vote to NO and Pence can't can't break the tie.

What? How?

Daines has a wedding he insists that he goes to.

Daines said he would make it.

Here is another big clue:
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1048237414668546048

Daines already making Arrangements. That suggests to me that he is needed and it will be 50-50 with Pence breaking the Tie when all is said and done.

[Banana Republican]

Flake is apparently a yes.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If Joe Manchin votes YES on Kavanaugh, I hope he loses to Patrick Morrissey.

I don't care if he would lose voting against Kavanaugh. Why can't he have some integrity?

I think that Susan Collins is a YES as well. I would be pleasantly surprised if she isn't a YES.

[MT Treasurer]

Murkowski will probably NO and Flake (I assume?) YES, so this really comes to down to Collins.

[2016]

Flake is apparently a yes.

We knew that! Flake was deciding Vote to advance it out of the Cmt. last week.

[ON Progressive]

Can't wait for the sexual predator who thinks it's OK for disabled people to be forced to have elective surgeries without their consent to be on the Supreme Court. /s

[Free Speech Enjoyer]

Murkowski a confirmed no.

[Banana Republican]

Can't wait for the sexual predator who thinks it's OK for disabled people to be forced to have elective surgeries without their consent to be on the Supreme Court. /s

I think it is pretty much inevitable at this point that Dems will pack the Court at the next opportunity. Court packing and investigating and impeaching Kavanaugh will be a major issue in the 2020 Dem Primary, with all the candidates trying to out-do each other.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Flake's a yes, per MSNBC.

[2016]

I think that Susan Collins is a YES as well. I would be pleasantly surprised if she isn't a YES.

Then why all this posturing by her. Why does vote YES to advance and then makes a Statement at 3pm how her Final will be? It doesn't make sense to me. Sorry.

Republicans I believe have only 4 Women in the entire Senate:

Deb Fischer (NE), Moore-Capito (WV), Murkowski (Alaska) and Collins (Maine). The entire D-Women Caucus voted against Kavernaugh.

Fischer & Moore-Capito are in such deep Red State States where they want Kavernaugh to be confirmed 66/33 so it was a no brainer they would vote yes.

Sexual Assault is a huge problem in Alaska, Maine.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Murkowski has confirmed that she is a NO on the final vote.

[tmthforu94]

I think that Susan Collins is a YES as well. I would be pleasantly surprised if she isn't a YES.

Then why all this posturing by her. Why does vote YES to advance and then makes a Statement at 3pm how her Final will be? It doesn't make sense to me. Sorry.

Republicans I believe have only 4 Women in the entire Senate:

Deb Fischer (NE), Moore-Capito (WV), Murkowski (Alaska) and Collins (Maine). The entire D-Women Caucus voted against Kavernaugh.

Fischer & Moore-Capito are in such deep Red State States where they want Kavernaugh to be confirmed 66/33 so it was a no brainer they would vote yes.

Sexual Assault is a huge problem in Alaska, Maine.

+ Joni Ernst, Cindy Hyde-Smith

[ON Progressive]

Can't wait for the sexual predator who thinks it's OK for disabled people to be forced to have elective surgeries without their consent to be on the Supreme Court. /s

I think it is pretty much inevitable at this point that Dems will pack the Court at the next opportunity. Court packing and investigating and impeaching Kavanaugh will be a major issue in the 2020 Dem Primary, with all the candidates trying to out-do each other.

I'm not sure if we will, because our leadership is too "MUH INSTITUTIONS" to do anything, but we absolutely should.

The GOP loves to be power hungry, why shouldn't we play their game? The next time we have a federal trifecta, we should nuke the filibuster entirely, pack the courts (I want non-partisan justices but that isn't going to happen), and make DC/PR states so we have 4 very secure Senate seats. That is at the bare minimum.

[Banana Republican]

Then why all this posturing by her.

This is Susan Collins we are talking about. If you look up "posturing" in the dictionary, you will find a picture of Susan Collins. She is the very definition of posturing.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I can't wait for the suspense tomorrow:

Murkowski & Manchin vote NAY; Collins & Flake vote AYE. Senate stuck in limbo at 49-50 awaiting Daines to come back and provide the pivotal deciding AYE vote and Pence eagerly awaits to break the tie. Daines comes back and surprises everyone by voting NAY saying he changed his mind after talking with his daughter at her wedding.

oof