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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-Gray Television/Strategic Research Associates, LLC: Sen. Nelson (D) +1
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Author Topic: FL-Gray Television/Strategic Research Associates, LLC: Sen. Nelson (D) +1  (Read 857 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 02, 2018, 01:18:39 pm »

45% Nelson (D)
44% Scott (R)
11% Undecided

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http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_FL_September_Survey.pdf
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 01:51:34 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2018, 01:52:39 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2018, 02:00:39 pm »

Definitely seems like Nelson has the edge right now, though not a particularly large one.
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2016
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 02:01:40 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

That's actually not true. The same Pollster has Manchin up 8 in West Virginia despite Trump having a 62% JA in WV.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 02:04:43 pm »

Definitely seems like Nelson has the edge right now, though not a particularly large one.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 02:05:13 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

That's actually not true. The same Pollster has Manchin up 8 in West Virginia despite Trump having a 62% JA in WV.


What was the electorate like? Could than mean that Manchin is up even more?
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2016
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 02:10:38 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

That's actually not true. The same Pollster has Manchin up 8 in West Virginia despite Trump having a 62% JA in WV.

Here is the Poll
https://www.wjhg.com/content/news/494935621.html
Noticeable: Voters by a 45/32 margin say Kavernaugh should be confirmed as SCOTUS Justice.
What was the electorate like? Could than mean that Manchin is up even more?
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 02:11:09 pm »

The old dog is still hanging on. Keep pushing Bill
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2018, 04:26:46 pm »

The enthusiasm question is stupid.  It asks whether your enthusiasm to vote is more, the same, or less.

I would answer the same.  What the question fails to discern is that I am always enthusiastic about voting.   Even in school board elections.
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UWS
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2018, 04:45:35 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.

If the Florida electorate is 7 % more Republican than in 2016, when the Republicans won Florida both in the presidential level (by almost 2 percentage points) and in the senatorial level with Marco Rubio (by 8 percentage points), then it's actually good news for the Republicans because with an electorate that is almost 10 % more Republican in Florida it increases Rick Scott's chances of victory there.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 04:47:47 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.

If the Florida electorate is 7 % more Republican than in 2016, when the Republicans won Florida both in the presidential level and in the senatorial level with Marco Rubio, then it's actually good news for the Republicans because with an electorate that is almost 10 % more Republican in Florida it increases Rick Scott's chances of victory there.
Thatís definitely not the takeaway.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 04:50:19 pm »

They also have Gillum up 1, which suggest that at this pollster has a noticeable R house effect. More good news for Nelson.

They see an electorate 7% more Republican than the 2016 one.

If the Florida electorate is 7 % more Republican than in 2016, when the Republicans won Florida both in the presidential level (by almost 2 percentage points) and in the senatorial level with Marco Rubio (by 8 percentage points), then it's actually good news for the Republicans because with an electorate that is almost 10 % more Republican in Florida it increases Rick Scott's chances of victory there.

Or, the more likely answer, the poll completely oversampled Rs, and this is not representative of the actual electorate at all.

Another good takeaway is that Nelson and Gillum are still up in such a skewed sample, which is the best news that Ds could have gotten for the race.
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marty
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 05:00:48 pm »

Honest question

Why is trumpís approval in Florida relatively.....decent?

Compared to national polling, it doesnít make sense
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 05:30:27 pm »

Honest question

Why is trumpís approval in Florida relatively.....decent?

Compared to national polling, it doesnít make sense
It would be decent if this was a state Trump won by 8 points.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 11:46:47 pm »

Republicans will win.  They are pissed.  I am pissed.  It is imperative that we stop the racist, sexist Democrats.  It's over now. 
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