The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isn’t as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.
Uh...
If you think Berg had trouble winning over female voters, just wait until Cramer gets the nomination. Triage this race.
It's clear that the ND GOP doesn't have a John Thune capable of beating Heitkamp.
It will definitely be interesting to see if Heitkamp actually wins more counties than her Republican opponent this year. She could be the only red state Democrat to do so, although Manchin almost certainly will as well if he wins his race.
The fact that Cramer (who’s probably going to lose the female vote by 20+ points) entering actually helps the Republicans in this race tells you all you need to know about its competitiveness. There is literally no evidence or sign that this race is Tilt R, unless you’re just looking at the 2016 results and assuming that they are a good indicator of what’s going to happen in ND this year, which would be a ridiculous thing to do.
Cramer entering probably moves it from Likely/Safe D to Lean/Likely D, but Heitkamp still has a significant advantage in this race. Cramer is probably the Republican candidate most likely to implode Akin-style IMO.
10%-20%. I’m not buying that Heitkamp is as vulnerable as people are making her out to be, and my bold™ prediction is that she’ll stun the pundits and Atlas and do better than Nelson, Manchin and even Tester.
The ND GOP bench simply isn’t as strong as you would expect, and it’s showing in this race. It also doesn’t help that the party isn’t really used to dealing with competitive races, given that most elections in ND aren’t really all that competitive. I don’t think they’re well-prepared for a campaign against an incumbent as ridiculously strong as Heitkamp.
There's plenty more but I'm sure you get the point.
