ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10

[Virginiá]

Heitkamp needs to Todd Akin him, hard.

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasn’t leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

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We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

[Virginiá]

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

It's just a matter of perspective I guess. I'm not convinced this particular confirmation fight is going to be the big loser for Senate Democrats that is semi-common knowledge right now. I've always been really skeptical of the argument that any fight over the courts inherently favors conservatives (polling right now seems to suggest Democrats care more than Republicans), mostly because conservative voters who even know what the Supreme Court is and/or can even name more than one justice are already staunch Republicans that vote like clockwork. But this time is different, mostly because Kavanaugh is not very popular and accusations of sexual assault do give Democrats some cover among voters the few voters that may care about this and aren't dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. Perhaps it wouldn't have mattered as much in another time, but this particular era is marked by a backlash to sexual abuse and does appear to be having noticeable effects on elections and the candidates that run. Of course, I get that some people think Republicans just don't care about rape or sexual assault because of the magical R, and to a large extent that is probably true, but it doesn't mean they all do. Even a small ~15% sliver is a huge deal in most states.

Gardner can't run a base-only strategy in 2020, so I think once Democrats remind the right people of his vote in this case, it'll peel enough some voters away. It's certainly a potential liability. Voters aren't necessarily indifferent to this stuff. It's just when your goal is convince partisan voters to change their minds that it becomes a problem.

[Virginiá]

^^ All of this goes to show that Democrats need to make DC and PR into states ASAP. Their Senate majority hopes resting completely on Republican-leaning states is a potential liability when it comes to the Supreme Court, and Democrats need to be able to fight for a left-leaning majority on the court without constantly hurting their electoral prospects (allegedly :x)

Not to mention making them into states is just the right thing to do, but still.