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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2  (Read 1457 times)
Fuzzy Will Kick Covid's Ass!
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,380
United States

« on: October 01, 2018, 07:40:41 pm »

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

I mean, I'm not arguing she can't win. Just saying what happened in 2014.

Now, saying she will win, well, I wouldn't go that far.

While 2014 is a useful Benchmark, we shouldn't rely on it too heavily for three reasons.

One. That was a republican tsunami year, whereas 2018 by all accounts will be one for the Democrats. That will affect races even in relatively inelastic States like Georgia.

Two. As our own Kyle Griffin has pointed out, Georgia's demographics shift every year to be more Democrat friendly. It has only been 4 years, admittedly, but those changes alone can change this race by a percentage point or two.

Three. Abrams is trying something completely different to what Carter and Nunn attempted 4 years ago. Specifically, she's putting all her eggs into a voter mobilization turnout basket. Yes, it's not like Carter or Nunn sat on their hands and did not try to turn out black voters and other minorities who tend not to show up for midterms. However, Abrams is doing that double time or even triple time compared to what Carter and Nunn attempted. In fact, she's basing her whole campaign on bringing out those voters, both in tone and message as well as campaign infrastructure, rather than spending money on Mushi glossy ads trying to appeal to the largely imaginary Georgia swing voter. I am by no means guaranteeing it will work, and it has a chance of backfiring badly. However, it's a wholly new Gambit for which Carter and Nunn's campaign aren't the best yardstick.
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