GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams is going to win.

She is at 58-25 among Independents. Deal won them 59-36.

87 percent of black voters when in reality it will be closer to 93-95 percent.

I'm willing to wager she will get 70 percent of other (non-white/non-black) rather than 59 percent.

Her base also won't show up on likely voter polls.

This will most likely go to a runoff.

It seemed that way in 2014... only for Deal to win easily.

This year's most likely different, though. I'd bet there's going to be a runoff now.

Deal could only scrape up 53 percent in a GOP wave year and as an extremely popular incumbent Governor. Black turnout also remained very robust with a lackluster candidate who didn't invest much in galvanizing their vote. Kemp is a sitting duck.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Polling showed Deal below the 50% needed to avoid the runoff for the entirety of the race, and Jason Carter more often than not was well within striking distance. Even if it seemed he had the advantage, let's not pretend he was this unbeatable titan back then, because he certainly was not. In the end, undecideds broke heavily towards him and he won by a larger margin than expected.

This post doesn't negate anything I said. I didn't say he was an unbeatable titan. I said with everything in the environment being ripe for a GOP victory all he got was 53 percent, I don't see how it's far fetched that Abrams can win when she excites the base far more than Carter ever did, there's an extremely polarizing GOP president in office, Abrams is killing Kemp with independents, and she has a sleeping giant of low propensity black and Hispanic voters waiting to be awakened.

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

Lean R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

I mean, I'm not arguing she can't win. Just saying what happened in 2014.

Now, saying she will win, well, I wouldn't go that far.

I'm a Stacey Abrams hack don't mind me. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did anyone read the whole article? Landmark Communication is run by a GOP strategist thus there is at least a small amount of political spin in this poll.

Yeah I was listening to Political Rewind on GPB and the lady representing Landmark was so negative when talking about Abrams. LOL. I realized Landmark must be a GOP firm. At the end of the day they couldn't cover up that Abrams is trouncing Kemp with Independents and the black vote will be much more consolidated than this poll suggests. And I'm telling y'all the Hispanic vote is going to shock a lot of people on Election Night. I have never seen a campaign so laser focused on turning out ESL voters from Norcross to Dalton to Fort Valley.