CNN-NV-Rosen +4

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B-b-b-but I thought Heller would win in the upset of a century because Rosen is a horrible candidate!

Anyway, RIP Heller. Pretty good poll for McCaskill as well, but it seems like every MO poll is within 3% for either candidate, so it's definitely a Toss-Up.

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Republicans are more likely to win MT and WV than NV. Likely D.

You mean they'd sooner win in a Trump +20 and a Trump +42 state than a Clinton +2 state? I dunno man, I think candidate quality is more important than that stuff.

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There are multiple people here that think Heller will win or that Rosen will only win by <1 point. And as far as I can tell these people don't think there will be a Republican wave.

Who honestly believes that?

Plenty of people in the threads about weak Democratic candidates and "races we're all getting wrong" threads are predicting that Heller will win. They can predict that if they want, but the evidence is clearly not in their favor, lol.

[Xing]

Well, the polls certainly underestimated Sandoval in 2014.

Though that's probably not going to happen here.

True, but that was kind of a special case, in that Sandoval was massively popular, and didn't struggle with Latino voters. In NV-PRES 2008, NV-SEN 2010, NV-GOV 2010, NV-PRES 2012, NV-SEN 2012, NV-PRES 2016, and NV-SEN 2016, though, polls underestimated Democrats, and often did so by massive margins.