NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Menendez, you make me sad.

This, but he will still win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But you know that there was a major crapping of the diapers in NJ if we are more likely to win PA and MI than NJ lmao.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

This poll also  has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population  are Hispanic.

Oh wow, I did not catch that one at first, thanks for pointing it out. Yeah I looked and they clock in at a slightly smaller 14% of the electorate usually, but that is significantly more than 4%, and they go heavier than even the generic American hispanic.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, I feel a little better now, if we factor in the hispanic deficit in the poll too, Menendez is probably up by 7-8.