NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:36:35 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Author Topic: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2  (Read 4109 times)
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 01, 2018, 10:06:28 AM »
« edited: October 01, 2018, 10:57:38 AM by yeah_93 »

Menendez (D, inc.)   45
Hugin (R)                 43

Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 10:07:21 AM »

Likely D, due to the national environment, but Menendez would be losing in a Clinton midterm. Yet another example that candidate quality matters.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 10:10:19 AM »

Menendez, you make me sad.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 10:11:28 AM »


This, but he will still win.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 10:13:11 AM »

Good thing the environment will probably save him
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 10:15:00 AM »

But you know that there was a major crapping of the diapers in NJ if we are more likely to win PA and MI than NJ lmao.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 10:18:06 AM »

Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 10:30:49 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 10:34:47 AM »

Lean D
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 10:41:02 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

This poll also  has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population  are Hispanic.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 10:43:42 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

This poll also  has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population  are Hispanic.

Oh wow, I did not catch that one at first, thanks for pointing it out. Yeah I looked and they clock in at a slightly smaller 14% of the electorate usually, but that is significantly more than 4%, and they go heavier than even the generic American hispanic.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 10:45:40 AM »

Yeah, I feel a little better now, if we factor in the hispanic deficit in the poll too, Menendez is probably up by 7-8.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 10:46:02 AM »

New Jersey has a history of really high undecideds and nearly all undecided voters choosing the Democrat, even outside of D wave years, so I wouldn't take this too seriously as indicative of a competitive race. If the Republicans had run someone better than Hugin... maybe.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,200


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2018, 10:47:09 AM »

Good thing the environment will probably save him

More like a bad thing. Hugin would clearly be a far better Senator.

Unfortunately, this poll way under sampled miniorities, so Menendez is probably leading by much more
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2018, 10:47:27 AM »

Stockton likes to oversample whites.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2018, 11:14:22 AM »

Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?
Logged
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2018, 11:21:14 AM »

Good thing the environment will probably save him

More like a bad thing. Hugin would clearly be a far better Senator.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2018, 11:22:18 AM »

Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?

It's obvious that the fact that this is a stubbornly Democratic state that's facing a blue wave is going to save Menendez.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2018, 11:25:17 AM »

Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?

It's obvious that the fact that this is a stubbornly Democratic state that's facing a blue wave is going to save Menendez.

That's exactly my point. The fact that New Jersey is a blue state and that this year is going to be Democratic-friendly have more impact on this race than Menendez being a terrible candidate.
Logged
isoscelessquare
Rookie
**
Posts: 25
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.65, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2018, 11:32:43 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2018, 11:37:40 AM »

Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ.
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,319
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2018, 11:38:08 AM »

Woah. Didn’t expect that
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2018, 11:47:09 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

If this is the case then the poll doesn’t tell us much
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2018, 11:50:11 AM »

Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ.

Stockton always under samples minority voters. You'd think they would have tried to correct this by now.
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2018, 11:52:01 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.

2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 13 queries.