NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2

[BudgieForce]

Seriously, if the electorate is over 80% white like Stockton is suggesting, Menendez might lose. However, the electorate in a democrat leaning midterm  is probably going to be under 70% white. I know we shouldn't unskew, but it frustrates me that Harry Enten and Nate Silver wont even point out the huge flaws in this poll.

[Senator Incitatus]

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

Stockton obviously has problems that make this poll favor Hugin, but I wouldn't assume Asian voters are going to go for Menendez in any big way. I think he'll be under 60% with them.

The real problem is the undersampling of Hispanics and black voters.

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.

2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then.

It has also gotten a lot less non-Hispanic black since 2006. Population growth in NJ is almost entirely driven by Hispanic and especially (South) Asian populations.

[BudgieForce]

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

Stockton obviously has problems that make this poll favor Hugin, but I wouldn't assume Asian voters are going to go for Menendez in any big way. I think he'll be under 60% with them.

The real problem is the undersampling of Hispanics and black voters.

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.

2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then.

It has also gotten a lot less non-Hispanic black since 2006. Population growth in NJ is almost entirely driven by Hispanic and especially (South) Asian populations.

Fun fact, NJ would be facing a small but significant population decline if it were not for non-whites moving and having families there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.

lol no

[ElectionsGuy]

Ouch. That's embarrassing.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.

lol no

Zero chance NJ is sending a Republican, no matter how moderate they are, to the Senate. Zero reason to believe that Clinton would have been unpopular in NJ of all places. MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, etc.? Sure.

[BudgieForce]

Ouch. That's embarrassing.

More for Stockton than Menendez.

[Beet]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hugin pull it off at all. Time to add this race to the list of battlegrounds.

[Senator Incitatus]

The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race?

[Politician]

Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.

lol no

Zero chance NJ is sending a Republican, no matter how moderate they are, to the Senate. Zero reason to believe that Clinton would have been unpopular in NJ of all places. MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, etc.? Sure.

If Trump's unpopularity in NJ isn't dragging Hugin down, I fail to see how Clinton's popularity would.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Menendez is an embarrassment for the Democratic party but he will prevail for the same reasons Pat Roberts did four years ago.

[BudgieForce]

The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race?

I'm not sure how accurately you can weigh 24 people tbh. 

[Senator Incitatus]

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Beyond candidate quality, it's striking how terrible the Menendez campaign is as an operation. This is probably partly a product of Menendez's own flaws, though. What credible operative would want to work for this scumbag?

[Yellowhammer]

I think the final result will be something like Menendez +6

[OSR stands with Israel]

Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.

lol no

Zero chance NJ is sending a Republican, no matter how moderate they are, to the Senate. Zero reason to believe that Clinton would have been unpopular in NJ of all places. MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, etc.? Sure.

IL 2010, DE 2010 if Republicans didnt nomiante O'Donnell


Tom Kean would be the next senator

[Senator Incitatus]

The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race?

I'm not sure how accurately you can weigh 24 people tbh. 

Not very. Wish we had actual crosstabs so we could see if there were any counter-intuitive results. I don't really have a problem with it if they found Menendez gets 90% of the black vote and 75% of the Hispanic vote or something similar, and then weighted that. It might not be a accurate picture of the race, but at least we'd know it's not an overestimate of Hugin's real support.

[KingSweden]

I think the final result will be something like Menendez +6

Yeah somewhere between Menendez by 4-6 seems reasonable to me

[MT Treasurer]

IL 2010, DE 2010 if Republicans didnt nomiante O'Donnell


Tom Kean would be the next senator

Blue states have gotten much more polarized since then. Even in 2014, the GOP did terribly in states far less Democratic than NJ (MI/MN/etc.). IL-SEN 2010 and MA-SEN 2010 were outliers, not the norm.

[OSR stands with Israel]

IL 2010, DE 2010 if Republicans didnt nomiante O'Donnell


Tom Kean would be the next senator

Blue states have gotten much more polarized since then. Even in 2014, the GOP did terribly in states far less Democratic than NJ (MI/MN/etc.). IL-SEN 2010 and MA-SEN 2010 were outliers, not the norm.

Franken was pretty popular in 2014 while Menendez is pretty unpopular

[Tintrlvr]

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Beyond candidate quality, it's striking how terrible the Menendez campaign is as an operation. This is probably partly a product of Menendez's own flaws, though. What credible operative would want to work for this scumbag?

New Jersey has very unusual politics. Unlike with Democrats who have lost in New Jersey, like Corzine, who was abandoned by the county machines in favor of Christie, Menendez has the full backing of the county machines, so there's a lot of operatives out there working in his favor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is gonna be close.

[Skye]

I'm personally waiting for Monmouth and Quinnipiac to poll this race again. I have it as Lean D for now.

[ON Progressive]

I'm personally waiting for Monmouth and Quinnipiac to poll this race again. I have it as Lean R for now.

"Lean R"

No.

[Skye]

I'm personally waiting for Monmouth and Quinnipiac to poll this race again. I have it as Lean R for now.

"Lean R"

No.

As Lean D, SORRY, it was a mistake.

I don't want to be a laughing stock